[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 July 16 issued 2343 UT on 30 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 31 09:43:44 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no flare activity to report. Small region 2570 located at N10E41
is the only numbered sun spot region currently on the visible
disc and appears quiet and stable. Solar wind speed (Vsw) has
gradually declined over the last 24 hours, from 520km/s at 00UT
to be ~420km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between
+/-3nT over the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to return
to ambient levels for the next 2 days. An increase in solar wind
parameters is likely on 02Aug due to a glancing blow from the
CME associated with the equatorial located disappearing solar
filament from 28Jul. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low
for the next 3 days with only slight chance of a C-class flare.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
30/1030UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 22110000
Cocos Island 2 2111010-
Darwin 2 22110000
Townsville 4 32111010
Learmonth 3 32100000
Alice Springs 2 22110000
Norfolk Island 2 21110001
Culgoora 8 3222222-
Gingin 3 32110010
Canberra 2 22110000
Launceston 4 22121011
Hobart 3 22120001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 21020000
Casey 6 33211110
Mawson 21 64422132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 15 4433 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 7 Quiet
01 Aug 5 Quiet
02 Aug 20 Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed on 30Jul. Quiet conditions
are expected for 31Jul-01Aug. Active conditions with possible
Minor Storm periods possible for 02Aug due to glancing blow effects
of a CME associated with a disappearing solar filament that lifted
off the sun 28Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
01 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
02 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed across all latitudes
for 29Jul with occasional enhancements at mid latitudes. Continued
MUF depressions are expected across all latitudes for 31Jul-02Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 25 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 25 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's observed over all regions during the
last 24 hours with isolated enhancements for some Equatorial
regions. Disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.
Continued MUF depressions are expected over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 553 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 162000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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