[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 17 09:30:19 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul:  Low

Flares: C class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jul             18 Jul             19 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 16 July UT. Active Region 
2567 produced a series of B and C class flares including the 
largest flare of the day, a C6.8 event peaking at 07:04 UT (N06E26). 
AR 2564 also produced several weak C class flares (N09W17). Further 
C class flares are expected and there is an approximately 30% 
chance that an M class flare will occur today, 17 July. The solar 
wind speed declined from above 600 km/s to about 500 km/s during 
16 July. The solar wind speed is expected to continuing declining 
toward slow wind values during 17-18 July. The magnitude of the 
IMF has been fluctuating between about 2 nT and 6 nT and the 
Bz component has been fluctuating in the range -5 nT and +3 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22213111
      Cocos Island         3   21112010
      Darwin               5   22212111
      Townsville           6   22213112
      Learmonth            6   32213010
      Alice Springs        6   22213111
      Norfolk Island       5   32112111
      Culgoora             9   32223222
      Gingin               7   32213111
      Canberra             6   22123111
      Launceston           9   32224111
      Hobart               7   22124111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     9   21225000
      Casey               11   34323111
      Mawson              27   55533342

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne          161   (Severe storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   3333 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jul     6    Quiet
18 Jul     5    Quiet
19 Jul     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during 
16 July UT. The planetary magnetic activity index Kp peaked at 
3 during 00-03 UT and 12-15 UT. Maximum Australian region K indices 
reached 2 to 3. Geomagnetic activity will be mostly quiet during 
the next 2 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal 
in both hemispheres during 16 July UT. However, mild regional 
depressions are persisting. Conditions are expected to be mostly 
near normal during the next 2 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jul    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      31
Jul      42
Aug      40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mostly 
near normal in the Australian region during 16 July UT. Cocos 
Island was an exception: the preliminary daily index was only 
23. Strong range spread F conditions occurred above Darwin early 
this morning local time. Conditions are expected to be mostly 
near normal during the next 2 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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