[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 16 09:30:20 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Low
Flares: C class flare
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 15 July UT. Active Region
2567 (N05E28) produced a series of B class flares and the largest
flare of the day, a C2.0 event peaking at 15:11 UT. The background
X ray flux is elevated and further C class flares may occur.
SOHO LASCO coronograms recorded a fast CME expanding toward the
south west west commencing during 13 UT on 15 July. This CME
is associated with a filament eruption from a region near the
western limb. This CME is probably not Earthward directed. The
Earth is still under the influence of fast wind emanating from
Coronal Hole 746. The solar wind speed is currently fluctuating
between about 600 and 650 km/s. The solar wind speed will decrease
during 16-17 July. The magnitude of the IMF is currently about
4 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating weakly in the
range -4 nT to +4 nT since about 10 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 23331212
Cocos Island 5 22231110
Darwin 6 22231211
Townsville 9 23331212
Learmonth 8 22331212
Alice Springs 7 22331211
Norfolk Island 7 23231111
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 9 23331222
Canberra 7 23231211
Melbourne 9 23331222
Launceston 11 23341222
Hobart 7 22231222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
Macquarie Island 12 13351211
Casey 13 33332242
Mawson 47 56654226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 71 (Active)
Canberra 61 (Active)
Melbourne 83 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 12 2244 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jul 6 Quiet
18 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during
15 July UT. The planetary magnetic activity index Kp reached
3 during 03 to 12 UT. Maximum Australian region K indices also
reached 3. Geomagnetic activity will decline from unsettled to
mostly quiet levels during the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal
in both hemispheres during 15 July UT. However, mild depressions
are persisting in some regions. Conditions are expected to be
mostly near normal but with regional depressions during the next
2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mostly
near normal in the Australian region during 15 July UT. Conditions
were even mildly enhanced at Perth, Sydney and Brisbane! The
preliminary daily T index was about 52 for these stations. Conditions
are expected to be mostly near normal today, 16 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 542 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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