[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 15 09:30:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 91/36 91/36
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during 14 July UT and it
is expected to remain very low during the next 2 days. There
is the possibility of a C-class flare. SDO AIA 131 nm images
recorded a series of filament eruptions propagating south of
AR 2562 during 13-14 July. SOHO LASCO coronograms recorded no
CMEs associated with these eruptions. The ejecta remained bound
to the Sun. GONG H alpha images recorded a small Disappearing
Solar Filament (DSF) north east of AR 2564 during 15 UT on 14
July. The solar wind speed increased from about 500 km/s to nearly
700 km/s during 14 July. This was due to the arrival of fast
flows emanating from polar Coronal Hole 746. The equatorial extension
of CH 746 is rotating towards the western limb of the solar disk.
The solar wind speed is expected to decrease during 16-17 July.
The magnitude of the IMF has been about 6 nT and the Bz component
has been fluctuating between about -5 nT and +5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 12332221
Cocos Island 7 12331121
Darwin 8 22331122
Townsville 9 22332222
Learmonth 6 12231221
Alice Springs 8 12332221
Norfolk Island 7 12331211
Culgoora 9 23332221
Gingin 8 22331222
Canberra 8 12332221
Melbourne 9 12342221
Launceston 13 22442322
Hobart 9 12342221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
Macquarie Island 12 12451211
Casey 13 23332342
Mawson 31 54554343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 69 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3312 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
16 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during
14 July UT. The planetary magnetic activity index Kp peaked at
4 during 09 to 15 UT and and conditions are approaching active
levels at the time of this report. Maximum Australian region
K indices reached 3 at low latitude stations and 4 south of Canberra.
Geomagnetic activity will decline from unsettled to active levels
to mostly quiet levels during the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in both hemispheres during 14 July UT.
Depressed conditions occurred locally. Conditions are expected
to be mostly normal but with local depressions during the
next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in the Australian region during 14 July
UT. Similar conditions are expected during the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 553 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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