[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 14 09:30:20 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 94/40 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during 13 July UT and it
is expected to remain very low to low during the next 2 days.
There is the possibility of a C-class flare. Active Region 2562
(S05W00) produced a weak B4.3 flare peaking at 14:44 UT. GONG
H alpha images and SDO AIA 131 nm images recorded a filament
eruption heading south from AR 2562 at the time of the B4.3 flare
SOHO LASCO images are not available at present. A long duration
B class X ray brightening peaked during 20 UT and is still decaying
at the time of this report. AR 2562 has rotated into the western
hemisphere and there is the possibility of a further filament
eruption. The solar wind speed decreased from about 600 km/s
to 500 km/s during 13 July. The solar wind speed may increase
again later today, 14 July, due to the arrival of fast wind from
Coronal Hole 746. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event began at 02:30 UT on 13 July. This may be a precursor to
increased geomagnetic activity during 14-15 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Cocos Island 3 12211011
Darwin 5 12222111
Townsville 6 22222212
Learmonth 5 22222111
Alice Springs 5 22222111
Norfolk Island 5 22122111
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 6 22222112
Canberra 5 22222201
Melbourne 7 22223211
Launceston 8 23223212
Hobart 7 22223211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
Macquarie Island 5 11232101
Casey 8 33232101
Mawson 29 54443126
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 64 (Active)
Canberra 59 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 113 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22 4554 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 13 July UT.
The maximum planetary K index was 3 during 00 to 06 UT and it
is currently about 1. Maximum Australian region K indices were
2. Depending on the impact of Coronal Hole 746, geomagnetic conditions
may reach active levels later today. The 3-day outlook is for
geomagnetic activity to decline from unsettled to active levels
to persistently quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
to mildly depressed in both hemispheres during 13 July UT. This
was partly due to the negative ionospheric storm following the
minor geomagnetic storm which occurred on 12 July. Conditions
are expected to be mildly depressed to near normal today, 14
July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 30 Mildly depressed
15 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed throughout the Australian region during 13 July. This
was partly due to the negative ionospheric storm following the
minor geomagnetic storm which occurred on 12 July. Conditions
are expected to be mildly depressed to near normal today, 14
July. An ionospheric trough occurred above Hobart early this
morning.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 559 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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