[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 13 09:30:22 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 94/40 94/40
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during 12 July UT and it
is expected to remain very low to low during the next 2 days.
AR 2564 may produce a C-class flare. There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk, all of them magnetically stable.
There are no Earthward directed CMEs. A solar wind disturbance
ahead of fast wind emanating from Coronal Hole 748 arrived at
Earth late on 11 July. The solar wind speed increased from below
500 km/s to above 600 km/s during 12 July. The solar wind speed
may moderate during 13 July and then increase again during 14
July due to the arrival of fast wind emanating from the next
coronal hole, CH 746. IMF Bz southward conditions affected Earth
until about 08 UT on 12 July. The Bz component reached a minimum
value of -8 nT at about 06 UT. The magnitude of the IMF is currently
about 6 nT and Bz has been fluctuating in the range -5 nT to
+5 nT since 09 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 10 23333122
Cocos Island 5 12222112
Darwin 8 22333111
Townsville 10 23333212
Learmonth 8 22323112
Alice Springs 10 23333112
Norfolk Island 8 23332111
Culgoora 9 22332222
Gingin 11 23333222
Canberra 10 13333122
Melbourne 12 23433122
Launceston 12 23433222
Hobart 12 23433122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
Macquarie Island 23 24464222
Casey 11 33332222
Mawson 55 66543257
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 3312 3234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels during
12 July UT due to the arrival of a solar wind disturbance ahead
of fast wind emanating from Coronal Hole 748. The planetary magnetic
index Kp peaked at 5 during 03 to 09 UT. The Australian region
was located on the dayside during this storm. Local K indices
peaked at 3 and the regional Dst index decreased to about -68
nT during 04 UT and 09 UT. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be unsettled to active during the next 2 days. They may reach
minor storm levels during 14 July depending on the orientation
of Bz in the disturbance ahead of fast flows emanating from CH
746.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in the Southern Hemisphere and near
normal in the Northern Hemisphere during 11-12 July UT. Similar
conditions are expected today, 13 July UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal throughout the Australian region during
12 July. Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days.
Spread F conditions are becoming more frequent during the local
night hours as the Sun declines towards solar minimum.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 504 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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