[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 18 09:30:24 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 17 July UT. Active Regions
2567 and 2565 produced C class X ray flares. AR 2567 produced
the largest flare of the day prior to 23 UT, a C1.4 event peaking
at 08:03 UT (N07E14). A larger C class flare is in progress at
the time of this report, a ribbon flare in H alpha images. AR
2567 will continue to produce C class flares and there is a small
chance it will produce an M class flare. AR 2567 and 2565 are
crossing the solar meridian today and the combined region is
very active in SDO AIA 131 nm images. SOHO LASCO coronograms
recorded a faint partial halo CME leaving the Sun commencing
during 12 UT. The strongest component of the CME was directed
toward the east. The solar wind speed declined from about 500
km/s to below 450 km/s during 17 July. The solar wind density
rose from about 2 /cm3 to about 4-6 /cm3. The magnitude of the
IMF has been fluctuating between about 2 nT and 5 nT and the
Bz component has been fluctuating in the range -5 nT and +3 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Cocos Island 3 11211101
Darwin 3 21102111
Townsville 5 22112112
Learmonth 2 11102101
Alice Springs 4 22112111
Norfolk Island 3 11121011
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 4 11112211
Canberra 4 12121111
Launceston 5 22122211
Hobart 4 11122111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 10132100
Casey 8 33221222
Mawson 13 34323223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3111 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 5 Quiet
19 Jul 6 Quiet
20 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 17 July UT.
The planetary magnetic activity index Kp reached 2 and Australian
region K indices reached 1 to 2. A negative polarity coronal
hole may have a impact on Earth in about 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in both hemispheres during 17 July UT.
Regional depressions are persisting. Conditions are expected
to be mildly depressed to near normal during the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in the Australian region during 17 July
UT. The preliminary daily T index was only 19 for Cocos Island
and 21 for Darwin. Sporadic E layers persisted above Cocos Island
last night local time. Conditions are expected to be mostly near
normal during the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 568 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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