[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 26 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Two minor C-class flares were observed 25 Jan, both
from AR 2489(N09E54). Solar activity is expected to be Low for
the next 3 days with a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
A disappearing solar filament observed in SDO images after 1900UT.
A CME was observed in LASCO imagery probably in association with
this event, there was a large data gap(1254UT-1954UT) inhibiting
further analysis. The solar wind speed showed a downward trend
and is currently around 400 km/s. IMF Bz component remained neutral
to positive. Solar wind speed is likely to rise from late today
26-Jan due to a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11000011
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 0 10000001
Townsville 1 11000011
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 0 0000----
Norfolk Island 1 00000022
Culgoora 1 11000011
Gingin 2 1110----
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 2 21110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 10110000
Casey 4 32210001
Mawson 4 22211012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 66 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2210 1241
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 15 Quiet to Active
27 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels throughout
the Australian region during the UT day, 25January. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to become Unsettled later today, 26 Jan.
A favourable IMF Bz may lead to Active levels 26 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation may be mildly disturbed
during 26-27 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan 45 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan 45 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mostly normal
for UT day, 25 January. Minor degradations in HF conditions may
be observed during 26-27 Jan due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days. Observed periods of sporadic E
throughout the Australian region, 25 January, expect this trend
to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 458 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 65500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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