[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 27 10:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 112/63 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 26 Jan UT with a
single C1 flare (of unknown origin) at 1715UT. More C class flares
are likely during 27-29 Jan. GONG H alpha images recorded a solar
filament disappearing from the south west quadrant ~1700 UT,
preceding the C1 flare. Large gap in SOHO imagery (1518UT-2111UT),
inhibiting further analysis. Further analysis of the CME observed
~~19UT/25 Jan suggests it is not geoeffective. The solar wind
speed remained under 400 km/s during 26 Jan. IMF Bz component
mostly neutral to positive. High solar wind stream from a large
polar coronal hole may enhance solar wind speeds in the coming
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11221121
Cocos Island 4 22211120
Darwin 5 11221131
Townsville 7 11321132
Learmonth 7 11222232
Norfolk Island 3 10211121
Culgoora 4 01221121
Canberra 2 00210121
Launceston 4 11221121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 01111100
Casey 8 23322121
Mawson 8 12122214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne 56 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1110 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels throughout
the Australian region during the UT day, 26 January. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to become Unsettled 27-28 Jan. Possible
isolated Active periods at higher latitudes, especially if IMF
Bz has an extended southward excursion.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be observed
during 27-28 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mostly normal
for UT day, 26 January. Minor degradations in HF conditions may
be observed during 27-28 Jan due to a possible rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 16700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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