[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 24 10:30:28 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jan             25 Jan             26 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low for the UT day, 23 
January. Solar flare activity is expected to remain Very Low 
over the next three days. No Earthward directed CMEs were noted 
in SOHO imagery for 23 January. The solar wind speed increased 
from 480 to 600 km/s and then gradually declined to 440 km/s 
during the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF varied 
between +/-6 nT over the last 24 hours. The total IMF is currently 
at approximately 5 nT. Expect the solar wind to gradually decline 
to nominal levels of the UT day, 24 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22323311
      Cocos Island         4   22212200
      Darwin               7   22213311
      Townsville           9   23223311
      Learmonth            9   22323311
      Alice Springs        7   22213310
      Norfolk Island       7   12213222
      Culgoora             8   22323211
      Gingin               8   22223321
      Canberra             9   13323310
      Launceston          13   23424311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    15   13425320
      Casey               26   45633322
      Mawson              25   35433524

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           38   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   3332 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jan     6    Quiet
25 Jan     4    Quiet
26 Jan     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Unsettled to Quiet levels 
throughout the Australian region during the UT day, 23 January. 
Antarctica was Unsettled to Active with isolated cases of minor 
storming. Expect a return to mostly Quiet levels for the next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jan    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were depressed for 
the Australian region due to an ionospheric storm for the UT 
day, 23 January. Expect mostly near predicted MUFs for the next 
three days as ionospheric stabilizes. Observed periods of sporadic 
E throughout the Australian region, 23 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 505 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   126000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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