[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 24 10:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low for the UT day, 23
January. Solar flare activity is expected to remain Very Low
over the next three days. No Earthward directed CMEs were noted
in SOHO imagery for 23 January. The solar wind speed increased
from 480 to 600 km/s and then gradually declined to 440 km/s
during the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF varied
between +/-6 nT over the last 24 hours. The total IMF is currently
at approximately 5 nT. Expect the solar wind to gradually decline
to nominal levels of the UT day, 24 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 22323311
Cocos Island 4 22212200
Darwin 7 22213311
Townsville 9 23223311
Learmonth 9 22323311
Alice Springs 7 22213310
Norfolk Island 7 12213222
Culgoora 8 22323211
Gingin 8 22223321
Canberra 9 13323310
Launceston 13 23424311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
Macquarie Island 15 13425320
Casey 26 45633322
Mawson 25 35433524
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3332 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 6 Quiet
25 Jan 4 Quiet
26 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Unsettled to Quiet levels
throughout the Australian region during the UT day, 23 January.
Antarctica was Unsettled to Active with isolated cases of minor
storming. Expect a return to mostly Quiet levels for the next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were depressed for
the Australian region due to an ionospheric storm for the UT
day, 23 January. Expect mostly near predicted MUFs for the next
three days as ionospheric stabilizes. Observed periods of sporadic
E throughout the Australian region, 23 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list