[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 23 10:30:31 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low for the UT day, 22
January. Solar flare activity is expected to remain Very Low
over the next three days. No Earthward directed CMEs were noted
in SOHO imagery for 22 January, though there is a CME in progress
on the southeast limb first observed using SOHO C2 imagery at
22/1900UT. Noted a 7 degree eruptive filament, visible in GONG
H-alpha, in the northeast quadrant at approximately 0630UT, but
does not appear to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed varied
between just under 500 to 550 km/s during the last 24 hours and
is currently just under 500 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF
varied between +/-6 nT over the last 24 hours. The total IMF
remains at approximately 6nT. Expect the solar wind to remain
elevated for the UT day, 23 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet to Unsettle
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Cocos Island 5 22121211
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 9 23222232
Learmonth 10 32222332
Alice Springs 7 22222222
Norfolk Island 7 23122122
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 8 32222222
Canberra 8 23222222
Launceston 12 33233322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
Macquarie Island 11 23234222
Casey 28 45642233
Mawson 33 44432266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 28 3553 3354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jan 6 Quiet
25 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Unsettled to Quiet levels
throughout the Australian region during the UT day, 22 January.
Antarctica was Unsettled to Active with isolated cases of minor
storming. Expect similar geomagnetic conditions today due to
an elevated solar wind speed.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 22 January
and is current for 23 Jan only. Conditions for HF radio propagation
were depressed for the Australian region due to an ionospheric
storm induced by a geomagnetic storm for the UT day, 22 January.
Expect moderate depressions to near predicted MUF values due
to weak ionospheric storming for the UT day, 23 January. Observed
periods of sporadic E throughout the Australian region, 22 January,
expect this trend to continue today, 23 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 150000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list