[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 22 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low for the UT day, 21 January
with four C-class flares occurring from active regions 2484,
2487, and 2488. Two of the C-class flares and the largest, C2.9,
occurred from active region 2487. Solar flare activity is expected
to remain Low over the next three days mainly due to active region
2487. No Earthward directed CMEs were noted in SOHO imagery for
21 January. The solar wind speed gradually increased from 350
to 550 km/s during the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the
IMF varied between +16/-20 nT over the last 24 hours and after
significant fluctuations has settled back to +/-5 nT. The total
IMF decreased by approximately 1/2 from 15nT to 7nT at around
21/1000. Expect the solar wind to remain elevated for the UT
day, 22 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Unsettled to
Active
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 18 34333433
Cocos Island 12 23222433
Darwin 14 33333332
Townsville 15 34333323
Learmonth 19 33334443
Alice Springs 15 33333432
Norfolk Island 13 24332323
Culgoora 16 34333333
Gingin 23 43334543
Canberra 19 35333333
Launceston 23 35434433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
Macquarie Island 25 35444433
Casey 50 56753434
Mawson 49 55543566
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 31
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 22 0234 5533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Unsettled to Active levels
throughout the Australian region during the UT day, 21 January
due to waning effects of 14 January CME/erupting filament transit
around Earth. Higher latitudes such as Tasmania and Antarctica
were Active to Major Storm levels. Expect mostly Unsettled geomagnetic
levels due to an elevated solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be slightly disturbed during 22 January due to Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 40 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 61 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 21 January
and is current for 22 Jan only. Conditions for HF radio propagation
were depressed for the Australian region due to an ionospheric
storm induced by a geomagnetic storm for the UT day, 21 January.
Expect moderate depressions to near predicted MUF values as the
ionospheric storm subsides for the UT day, 22 January. Observed
periods of sporadic E throughout the Australian region, 21 January,
expect this trend to continue today, 22 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: -8 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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