[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 18 10:30:29 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan:  Very low

Flares: B class flare

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jan             19 Jan             20 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 17 Jan UT. 
AR 2480 and 2483 will soon rotate beyond the western limb. Solar 
flare activity is expected to remain very low during 18-19 Jan. 
A South Pole coronal hole is traversing the central meridian. 
No new Earthward directed CMEs were recorded during 17 Jan. A 
slow, faint CME launched late on 14 Jan may impact Earth during 
the early hours of 19 Jan. The solar wind speed remained at about 
330 km/s during 17 Jan. The magnitude of the IMF varied between 
4 to 7 nT and the Bz component varied between about -5 nT and 
+4 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11211111
      Cocos Island         2   11210000
      Darwin               3   11211011
      Townsville           4   21221111
      Learmonth            3   11211101
      Alice Springs        4   11221012
      Norfolk Island       2   11210011
      Culgoora             4   11221111
      Gingin               2   10211101
      Canberra             3   11211011
      Melbourne            6   21321112
      Launceston           6   12322112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   01202000
      Casey               13   24442112
      Mawson              10   32222332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0111 1000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jan    12    Unsettled
20 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet throughout the Australian 
region during 17 Jan UT. Geomagnetic activity is expected to 
become unsettled later today, 18 Jan. Conditions may reach active 
levels during 19 Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to 
be mildly enhanced in the Southern Hemisphere and mildly depressed 
in the Northern Hemisphere during 18 Jan UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jan    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan    65    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were enhanced during 
17 Jan UT. They are expected to be near normal to mildly enhanced 
today, 18 Jan. Sporadic E layers may form at many mid-latitude 
locations today.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    26000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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