[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 17 10:30:29 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan:  Low

Flares: B class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jan             18 Jan             19 Jan
Activity     Low                Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 16 Jan UT. 
AR 2480 produced B class flares, the largest a B8.7 event peaking 
at 03:36 UT. A C class flare is possible today, 17 Jan. No new 
Earthward directed CMEs were recorded during 16 Jan. A slow, 
faint CME launched late on 14 Jan may impact Earth during the 
early hours of 19 Jan. The solar wind speed decreased to about 
330 km/s during 16 Jan and may strengthen late today, 17 Jan. 
The magnitude of the IMF reached about 7 nT and the Bz component 
fluctuated mostly between about -2 nT and +4 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11122011
      Cocos Island         3   11122010
      Darwin               3   11122011
      Townsville           7   22133012
      Learmonth            4   10033001
      Alice Springs        2   01122001
      Norfolk Island       3   21022001
      Culgoora             3   11122011
      Gingin               2   20022000
      Canberra             2   11022001
      Melbourne            4   11132011
      Launceston           5   12132011
      Hobart               4   121220--    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   11020000
      Casey               11   34322122
      Mawson               7   33222111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   2111 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jan    12    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jan    10    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet throughout the Australian 
region during 16 Jan UT. Geomagnetic activity is expected to 
become unsettled late today, 17 Jan. Conditions may reach active 
levels briefly during 18-19 Jan.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values in the Southern Hemisphere and 
mildly depressed in the Northern Hemisphere during 17 Jan UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jan    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were near predicted 
monthly values during 16 Jan UT and are expect to remain the 
same during 17 Jan. Sporadic E layers may form at many mid-latitude 
locations today.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    49300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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