[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 16 10:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 15 Jan UT. AR 2480
(N04W52) produced four C class flares, the largest event a C2.8
flare peaking at 02:39 UT. More C class flares are likely during
16-17 Jan. GONG H alpha images recorded a solar filament disappearing
from the south west quadrant during 20 UT on 14 Jan. A lesser
filament disappeared from the south east quadrant during 22 UT,
and yet another during 23 UT. SOHO LASCO coronograms recorded
a slow partial halo CME expanding toward the west commencing
23 UT. This faint CME is not very massive. It may impact the
Earth during the early hours of 19 Jan. The solar wind speed
decreased to about 380 km/s during 15 Jan. The magnitude of the
IMF was steady at about 4 nT and the Bz component fluctuated
between about -4 nT and +4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21211111
Cocos Island 1 01100110
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 4 21111112
Learmonth 3 21111111
Alice Springs 3 10211112
Norfolk Island 3 22101111
Culgoora 3 11211111
Gingin 3 21111111
Canberra 4 21211111
Melbourne 5 22221111
Launceston 6 22222112
Hobart 4 21211111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 11112010
Casey 15 44431222
Mawson 17 44222135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1123 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 5 Quiet
17 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jan 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet throughout the Australian
region during 15 Jan UT. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
remain quiet during 16 Jan and quiet to unsettled during 17 Jan.
Conditions may reach active levels during 18-19 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be near predicted monthly values in the Southern Hemisphere and
mildly depressed in the Northern Hemisphere during 16-17 Jan
UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were near predicted
monthly values during 15 Jan UT. However, they were mildly enhanced
at low latitudes and mildly depressed at high latitudes. For
example the preliminary daily T index was 90 for Darwin and 37
for Hobart. Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected
to be near normal during 16-17 Jan. Sporadic E layers may form
at mid-latitude locations today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 99100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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