[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 16 issued 2339 UT on 14 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 15 10:39:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Very low
Flares: B class flare
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 14 Jan UT.
AR 2480 produced a single B3.7 class flare. A zonally aligned
filament is traversing the central meridian in the Northern Hemisphere.
A lesser solar filament located just west of the solar meridian
disappeared in the Southern Hemisphere at 20 UT. LASCO coronograph
observations for the interval after this event will become available
later today. The solar wind speed decreased to about 440 km/s
during 14 Jan. It is expected to decrease further before the
possible impact of fast wind during 17-18 Jan. The magnitude
of the IMF decreased from about 6 nT to 4 nT and the Bz component
fluctuated mostly between about -5 nT and +5 nT during 14 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22222122
Cocos Island 4 22111111
Darwin 5 21222112
Townsville 6 22222112
Learmonth 8 22222223
Alice Springs 6 22222112
Norfolk Island 5 21222121
Culgoora 6 12322112
Gingin 7 22222222
Canberra 5 12222112
Melbourne 9 22332222
Launceston 11 22333223
Hobart 9 22332222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 21323311
Casey 35 46653233
Mawson 24 33333436
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3412 2231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 5 Quiet
16 Jan 5 Quiet
17 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet throughout the Australian
region during 14 Jan UT. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
remain quiet during 15-16 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be near predicted monthly values in the Southern Hemisphere and
depressed mildly in the Northern Hemisphere during 15-16 Jan
UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were near predicted
monthly values during 14 Jan UT. However, they were enhanced
mildly at low latitudes and depressed mildly at high latitudes,
especially during the first half of the day. Conditions for HF
radio propagation are expected to be near normal during 15-16
Jan. Sporadic E layers will form at many mid-latitude locations
this morning.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 540 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 164000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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