[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 14 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 13 Jan UT.
AR 2480 and AR 2483 produced B class flares. The background X
ray flux is gradually decreasing. A large solar filament is located
in the north east quadrant of the visible disk. Coronal Hole
710 is located east of AR 2483 and has crossed the solar meridian
in the Northern Hemisphere. A Corotating Interaction Region and
fast wind associated with CH 710 may impact Earth during 17-18
Jan. The Earth is currently immersed in fast wind associated
with CH 709. The solar wind speed fluctuated between about 500
and 600 km/s during 13 Jan. It is expected to decrease before
the arrival of fast wind associated with CH 710. The magnitude
of the IMF was about 6 nT and the Bz component fluctuated mostly
between about -5 nT and +5 nT during 13 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 33223122
Cocos Island 4 22112120
Darwin 9 33123122
Townsville 9 33223122
Learmonth 10 33223222
Alice Springs 9 33223122
Norfolk Island 5 23112111
Culgoora 9 33223122
Gingin 9 33123222
Canberra 10 34223121
Melbourne 11 34223222
Launceston 12 34323222
Hobart 11 34223122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 33214220
Casey 39 56653333
Mawson 27 55334352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3122 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jan 5 Quiet
16 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled throughout
the Australian region during 13 Jan UT. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be quiet to unsettled today, 14 Jan, and quiet
during 15-16 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are trending toward
predicted monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere. Conditions
were deeply depressed during the early hours of 12 Jan and then
strongly enhanced during the first half of 13 Jan in the Southern
Hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were strongly enhanced
during the first half of 13 Jan UT. For example, the preliminary
daily T index was 109 for Darwin and 112 for Brisbane. These
enhancements follow the deep depressions which occurred during
the early hours of 12 Jan. Conditions are expected to be near
normal to enhanced today, 14 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 551 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 322000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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