[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 19 10:30:27 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jan             20 Jan             21 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low for the UT day, 18 
January. Solar flare activity is expected to remain Very Low 
over the next three days. No Earthward directed CMEs were noted 
in SOHO imagery for 18 January. A moderate shock was observed 
in the solar wind at 2056UT on 18 January, due to the arrival 
of the slow, faint CME erupting late on 14 January. The solar 
wind speed was just under 300 km/s for the second half of the 
UT day until the arrival of the moderate shock when it jumped 
to approximately 380 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF varied 
between +/-4nT until the arrival of the shock when it went southward 
dipping to -10nT. It is currently southward and varying between 
near zero and -10nT. The magnitude of the IMF rose from 5/6 nT 
to 10/12 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11001113
      Cocos Island         2   10010102
      Darwin               3   11001013
      Townsville           4   11001014
      Learmonth            3   10011103
      Alice Springs        3   01001103
      Norfolk Island       2   10000013
      Culgoora             4   01001114
      Gingin               3   11001103
      Canberra             3   01001113
      Melbourne            5   11011114
      Launceston           5   01012114    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   00001102
      Casey                8   23231203
      Mawson               4   21012212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0010 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jan    25    Active
20 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 18 January and 
is current for 19 Jan only. Geomagnetic activity was quiet throughout 
the Australian region during the UT day 18 January until onset 
of activity due to the arrival of the CME shock at Earth resulting 
in active levels at many stations in the Australian region. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be Active to Unsettled today, 19 January, 
in the Australian region with isolated periods of Minor to Major 
Storm levels at higher latitudes such as Tasmania and the Antarctic 
region. A return to Unsettled to Quiet conditions is expected 
for 20-21 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to 
be mildly disturbed during 19 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jan    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jan    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Jan    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mainly near 
predicted values for 18 January. Expect MUFs to be near normal 
to mildly enhanced during the UT day, 19 January followed by 
periods of mild depressions on 20 January due to onset of geomagnetic 
activity. Noted isolated periods of sporadic E throughout the 
Australian region.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    35500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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