[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 19 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low for the UT day, 18
January. Solar flare activity is expected to remain Very Low
over the next three days. No Earthward directed CMEs were noted
in SOHO imagery for 18 January. A moderate shock was observed
in the solar wind at 2056UT on 18 January, due to the arrival
of the slow, faint CME erupting late on 14 January. The solar
wind speed was just under 300 km/s for the second half of the
UT day until the arrival of the moderate shock when it jumped
to approximately 380 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF varied
between +/-4nT until the arrival of the shock when it went southward
dipping to -10nT. It is currently southward and varying between
near zero and -10nT. The magnitude of the IMF rose from 5/6 nT
to 10/12 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11001113
Cocos Island 2 10010102
Darwin 3 11001013
Townsville 4 11001014
Learmonth 3 10011103
Alice Springs 3 01001103
Norfolk Island 2 10000013
Culgoora 4 01001114
Gingin 3 11001103
Canberra 3 01001113
Melbourne 5 11011114
Launceston 5 01012114
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 00001102
Casey 8 23231203
Mawson 4 21012212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0010 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 25 Active
20 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 18 January and
is current for 19 Jan only. Geomagnetic activity was quiet throughout
the Australian region during the UT day 18 January until onset
of activity due to the arrival of the CME shock at Earth resulting
in active levels at many stations in the Australian region. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be Active to Unsettled today, 19 January,
in the Australian region with isolated periods of Minor to Major
Storm levels at higher latitudes such as Tasmania and the Antarctic
region. A return to Unsettled to Quiet conditions is expected
for 20-21 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be mildly disturbed during 19 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Jan 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mainly near
predicted values for 18 January. Expect MUFs to be near normal
to mildly enhanced during the UT day, 19 January followed by
periods of mild depressions on 20 January due to onset of geomagnetic
activity. Noted isolated periods of sporadic E throughout the
Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 35500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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