[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 16 issued 2332 UT on 07 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 8 10:32:09 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a C1 flare from region 2480 (N02E60). Very low to low solar activity
is expected for the next 3 days. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed. The solar wind speed peaked at around 620 km/s and
is now ~540 km/s. The total IMF strength peaked around 8 nT and
has since declined to 5 nT. The Bz component fluctuated for most
the UT day between +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline gradually over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 32242222
Cocos Island 7 22232220
Darwin 9 22233312
Townsville 10 32333212
Learmonth 13 32243323
Alice Springs 10 22233322
Norfolk Island 7 32232111
Culgoora 8 22242211
Gingin 12 32243232
Camden 10 32242212
Canberra 7 22232211
Melbourne 10 33242220
Launceston 14 33343322
Hobart 12 33342222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Macquarie Island 14 33244311
Casey 28 46543322
Mawson 19 44433333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne 50 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 5233 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jan 5 Quiet
10 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled across
the Australian region on 7-Jan, with an active period 09-12 UT.
Some active and storm periods were observed in the Antarctic.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 8-Jan, with quiet
conditions on 9-10 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan 65 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan 65 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jan 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values on 7-Jan.
Some periods of sporadic-E and spread-F were observed. MUFs are
expected be near monthly predicted values for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 573 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 172000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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