[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 16 issued 2332 UT on 07 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 8 10:32:09 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jan             09 Jan             10 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a C1 flare from region 2480 (N02E60). Very low to low solar activity 
is expected for the next 3 days. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed. The solar wind speed peaked at around 620 km/s and 
is now ~540 km/s. The total IMF strength peaked around 8 nT and 
has since declined to 5 nT. The Bz component fluctuated for most 
the UT day between +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to decline gradually over the next few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   32242222
      Cocos Island         7   22232220
      Darwin               9   22233312
      Townsville          10   32333212
      Learmonth           13   32243323
      Alice Springs       10   22233322
      Norfolk Island       7   32232111
      Culgoora             8   22242211
      Gingin              12   32243232
      Camden              10   32242212
      Canberra             7   22232211
      Melbourne           10   33242220
      Launceston          14   33343322
      Hobart              12   33342222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    14   33244311
      Casey               28   46543322
      Mawson              19   44433333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           50   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15   5233 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jan     5    Quiet
10 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled across 
the Australian region on 7-Jan, with an active period 09-12 UT. 
Some active and storm periods were observed in the Antarctic. 
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 8-Jan, with quiet 
conditions on 9-10 Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Jan    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jan    65    Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan    65    Near predicted monthly values
10 Jan    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values on 7-Jan. 
Some periods of sporadic-E and spread-F were observed. MUFs are 
expected be near monthly predicted values for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 573 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   172000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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