[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 9 10:30:25 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed has declined to around
480 km/s. The total IMF strength remained around 5 nT, while
the Bz component fluctuated between +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed
should decline further over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 11233111
Cocos Island 5 21123111
Darwin 4 10123111
Townsville 7 11233112
Learmonth 8 21233122
Alice Springs 5 11123112
Norfolk Island 6 11133022
Culgoora 7 11233112
Gingin 6 20133111
Camden 7 21233111
Canberra 6 11233111
Melbourne 6 11233111
Launceston 8 21233212
Hobart 7 21233111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
Macquarie Island 14 10255211
Casey 21 35543222
Mawson 17 43343224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 4223 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jan 5 Quiet
11 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled across the
Australian region on 8-Jan. Some active and storm periods were
observed in the Antarctic. Similar conditions are expected on
9-Jan, with quiet conditions from 10 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of mildly degraded HF communications conditions
are possible on 9-Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values on 8-Jan.
Periods of sporadic-E were observed. MUFs are expected be near
monthly predicted values for the next 3 days, with mildly degraded
conditions at times on 9-Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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