[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 7 10:30:23 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a C1 flare from region 2480 (N04E75). Solar activity is expected
to be very low to low for the next 3 days. A CME from the southeast
quadrant does not appear to be Earth-directed. The solar wind
speed peaked around 670 km/s and has since declined to ~600 km/s.
The total IMF strength declined to about 8 nT. The Bz component
reached -7 nT early on 6-Jan, but spent most of the UT day varying
between +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually
decline over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 32332212
Cocos Island 7 32222212
Darwin 9 32223312
Townsville 12 32333322
Learmonth 12 32333313
Alice Springs 11 32333312
Norfolk Island 9 32332221
Culgoora 10 32332222
Gingin 12 42332223
Camden 10 32332222
Canberra 8 32232212
Melbourne 12 33333312
Launceston 14 33333323
Hobart 10 33332212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Macquarie Island 21 32554312
Casey 32 65633222
Mawson 30 54543245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 4 January and
is current for 6-7 Jan. Magnetic conditions over the Australian
region were mostly quiet to unsettled on 6-Jan, with some storm
level periods in the Antarctic. Mostly quiet conditions with
some unsettled periods are expected for 7-Jan, becoming more
settled 8-9 Jan. Active to minor storm periods are possible at
higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions are possible on 7-Jan at
high latitudes due to recent geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 4 January
and is current for 7 Jan only. MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values to enhanced on 6-Jan. Sporadic-E observed at Hobart
since 20 UT. MUFs are expected be near monthly predicted values
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 88400 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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