[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 4 10:30:32 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jan             05 Jan             06 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was at moderate levels over the last 
24 hours. No shock from the CME of 2 January has been recorded 
yet. As mentioned earlier there is less likelihood of the CME 
hitting the earth, but a glancing blow may still not be completely 
ruled out on 4 January. Solar wind speed showed gradual increase 
from ~420 to ~500 km/s by 2000 UT and then decreased back to 
~~420 km/s by 2300 UT today. The Bz component of the IMF showed 
variations between +4/-5 nT during most parts of the day, staying 
more towards the negative side for most of the time. There are 
currently three numbered sunspot regions on solar disk visible 
from the earthside. None of these seems to hold potential for 
any major event at this stage. Very low levels of solar activity 
may be expected on 4,5 and 6 January with some possibility of 
C-class activity on these days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning 03/1420UT, which can be a precursor 
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. Solar 
wind stream may start getting stronger from 6 January as a coronal 
hole is expected to become geoeffective around this time.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12212212
      Cocos Island         3   12211101
      Darwin               5   22212102
      Townsville           6   22212212
      Learmonth            6   22212212
      Alice Springs        6   23212102
      Norfolk Island       5   03211212
      Gingin               6   22212212
      Camden               6   13212212
      Canberra             4   02212102
      Hobart               -   --------    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     4   12211211
      Casey               20   35532223
      Mawson              17   23423325

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           29   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2222 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jan    15    Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods possible
05 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jan    12    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 2 January and 
is current for 3-4 Jan. Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at 
quiet to unsettled levels on 2 January. The expected glancing 
blow from a CME, that was observed during early hours on 2 January 
in association with an M2 flare, has not been observed yet. As 
mentioned earlier there is less likelihood of the CME hitting 
the earth, but a glancing blow may still not be completely ruled 
out on 4 January. If the CME does prove to be geoeffective, the 
geomagnetic activity may rise to active levels on 4 January. 
In case the CME does not hit the earth, mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions may be expected on 4 and 5 January. Conditions may 
rise to active levels on 6 January as the earth is expected to 
enter a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole around 
this day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0415UT 02/01, Ended at 0745UT 02/01

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs stayed mostly close to the monthly predicted values 
on 3 January. Nearly similar HF conditions may be observed for 
the next three days if the geomagnetic activity remains at lower 
levels. There is some possibility of rise in geomagnetic activity 
on 4 and 6 January. If this rise in geomagnetic activity eventuates, 
minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF 
conditions may be possible on these days (4 and 6 January). Mostly 
normal HF conditions may be expected on 5 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jan    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jan    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
05 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jan    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 1 was issued 
on 3 January and is current for 3-4 Jan. MUFs stayed mostly close 
to the monthly predicted values in the Aus/NZ regions on 3 January. 
Nearly similar HF conditions may be observed in the region for 
the next three days if the geomagnetic activity remains at lower 
levels. There is some possibility of rise in geomagnetic activity 
on 4 and 6 January. If this rise in geomagnetic activity eventuates, 
minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF 
conditions may be possible on these days (4 and 6 January) in 
the region. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 5 
January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 461 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    81700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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