[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 4 10:30:32 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was at moderate levels over the last
24 hours. No shock from the CME of 2 January has been recorded
yet. As mentioned earlier there is less likelihood of the CME
hitting the earth, but a glancing blow may still not be completely
ruled out on 4 January. Solar wind speed showed gradual increase
from ~420 to ~500 km/s by 2000 UT and then decreased back to
~~420 km/s by 2300 UT today. The Bz component of the IMF showed
variations between +4/-5 nT during most parts of the day, staying
more towards the negative side for most of the time. There are
currently three numbered sunspot regions on solar disk visible
from the earthside. None of these seems to hold potential for
any major event at this stage. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected on 4,5 and 6 January with some possibility of
C-class activity on these days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 03/1420UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. Solar
wind stream may start getting stronger from 6 January as a coronal
hole is expected to become geoeffective around this time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 12212212
Cocos Island 3 12211101
Darwin 5 22212102
Townsville 6 22212212
Learmonth 6 22212212
Alice Springs 6 23212102
Norfolk Island 5 03211212
Gingin 6 22212212
Camden 6 13212212
Canberra 4 02212102
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 12211211
Casey 20 35532223
Mawson 17 23423325
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2222 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 15 Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods possible
05 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jan 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 2 January and
is current for 3-4 Jan. Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at
quiet to unsettled levels on 2 January. The expected glancing
blow from a CME, that was observed during early hours on 2 January
in association with an M2 flare, has not been observed yet. As
mentioned earlier there is less likelihood of the CME hitting
the earth, but a glancing blow may still not be completely ruled
out on 4 January. If the CME does prove to be geoeffective, the
geomagnetic activity may rise to active levels on 4 January.
In case the CME does not hit the earth, mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions may be expected on 4 and 5 January. Conditions may
rise to active levels on 6 January as the earth is expected to
enter a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole around
this day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0415UT 02/01, Ended at 0745UT 02/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs stayed mostly close to the monthly predicted values
on 3 January. Nearly similar HF conditions may be observed for
the next three days if the geomagnetic activity remains at lower
levels. There is some possibility of rise in geomagnetic activity
on 4 and 6 January. If this rise in geomagnetic activity eventuates,
minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be possible on these days (4 and 6 January). Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected on 5 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
05 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 1 was issued
on 3 January and is current for 3-4 Jan. MUFs stayed mostly close
to the monthly predicted values in the Aus/NZ regions on 3 January.
Nearly similar HF conditions may be observed in the region for
the next three days if the geomagnetic activity remains at lower
levels. There is some possibility of rise in geomagnetic activity
on 4 and 6 January. If this rise in geomagnetic activity eventuates,
minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be possible on these days (4 and 6 January) in
the region. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 5
January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 81700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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