[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 16 issued 2334 UT on 04 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 5 10:34:35 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low and
is expected to remain so over the next 3 days. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed peaked around 470 km/s
but has since declined to ~400 km/s. The solar wind speed is
expected to increase on 6-Jan due to coronal hole effects. Total
IMF strength has increased slightly to around 6 nT. The Bz component
varied between +/-5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11210211
Cocos Island 2 11200210
Darwin 3 11210211
Townsville 4 12210211
Learmonth 4 11211211
Alice Springs 3 11210211
Norfolk Island 3 11210111
Gingin 2 11100210
Camden 5 12211221
Canberra 2 01200210
Melbourne 4 12210211
Launceston 6 22211311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 10200110
Casey 15 44432222
Mawson 17 23322354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0120 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 5 Quiet
06 Jan 20 Active to Minor Storm
07 Jan 20 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 4 January and
is current for 6-7 Jan. Magnetic conditions were quiet across
the Australian region on 4-Jan. Quiet conditions are expected
to continue during 5-Jan, with active periods on 6-7 Jan due
to coronal hole effects. Minor storm conditions at high latitudes
are possible on these days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
06 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
07 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: Moderately degraded conditions are likely on 7-Jan due
to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jan 30 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 4 January
and is current for 7 Jan only. Mild daytime MUF depressions were
observed on 4-Jan in southern Australia, with moderate nighttime
depressions in the north. MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values otherwise. Similar conditions are expected on 5-6 Jan,
with moderately depressed MUFs likely on 7-Jan due to more active
geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 80100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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