[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 16 issued 2334 UT on 04 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 5 10:34:35 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jan             06 Jan             07 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low and 
is expected to remain so over the next 3 days. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed peaked around 470 km/s 
but has since declined to ~400 km/s. The solar wind speed is 
expected to increase on 6-Jan due to coronal hole effects. Total 
IMF strength has increased slightly to around 6 nT. The Bz component 
varied between +/-5 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11210211
      Cocos Island         2   11200210
      Darwin               3   11210211
      Townsville           4   12210211
      Learmonth            4   11211211
      Alice Springs        3   11210211
      Norfolk Island       3   11210111
      Gingin               2   11100210
      Camden               5   12211221
      Canberra             2   01200210
      Melbourne            4   12210211
      Launceston           6   22211311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   10200110
      Casey               15   44432222
      Mawson              17   23322354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           38   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   0120 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jan     5    Quiet
06 Jan    20    Active to Minor Storm
07 Jan    20    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 4 January and 
is current for 6-7 Jan. Magnetic conditions were quiet across 
the Australian region on 4-Jan. Quiet conditions are expected 
to continue during 5-Jan, with active periods on 6-7 Jan due 
to coronal hole effects. Minor storm conditions at high latitudes 
are possible on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal
06 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal
07 Jan      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair

COMMENT: Moderately degraded conditions are likely on 7-Jan due 
to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jan    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jan    55    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jan    55    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jan    30    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 4 January 
and is current for 7 Jan only. Mild daytime MUF depressions were 
observed on 4-Jan in southern Australia, with moderate nighttime 
depressions in the north. MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values otherwise. Similar conditions are expected on 5-6 Jan, 
with moderately depressed MUFs likely on 7-Jan due to more active 
geomagnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    80100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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