[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 16 issued 2337 UT on 02 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 3 10:37:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 0017UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was at moderate levels over the last
24 hours. Region 2473(S21W89) produced a long duration M2.3 flare
that started at 2310/1 January, peaked at 0011/2 January and
ended at 0101/2 January. The flare was associated with a narrow
cone and relatively fast CME with speed over 1500 km/s. The location
and the angular width of the CME indicates less likelihood of
the CME hitting the earth, but a glancing blow in the second
half of the UT day 3 January can not be ruled out. Solar wind
speed stayed between 420 and 460 km/s during most parts of the
day today whereas the Bz component of the IMF showed variations
between +/-4 nT during most parts of the day. Low levels of solar
activity may be expected on 3 January with some possibility of
M-class activity on this day. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected on 4 and 5 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 32322121
Cocos Island 7 32322110
Darwin 10 42322212
Townsville 10 42322221
Learmonth 11 42332221
Alice Springs 8 32322212
Norfolk Island 8 32322121
Gingin 9 42322121
Camden 9 32332122
Canberra 6 22321111
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 22342221
Casey 30 56543322
Mawson 25 44433345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Melbourne 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20 6444 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 20 Quiet to minor storm
04 Jan 15 Quiet to minor storm
05 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet to unsettled levels
on 2 January. A possible glancing blow from a CME, that was observed
during early hours on 2 January in association with an M2 flare,
may raise the geomagnetic activity to minor storm levels during
the second half of the UT day 3 January and first half of 4 January.
If the CME does prove to be geoeffective, aurora sightings may
be possible. In case the CME does not hit the earth, mostly quiet
to unsettled conditions may be expected from 3 to 5 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0415UT 02/01, Ended at 0745UT 02/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
04 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUF stayed mostly close to the monthly predicted values
on 2 January. Nearly similar HF conditions may be observed for
the next three days if the geomagnetic activity remains at lower
levels. There is some possibility of rise in geomagnetic activity
on 3 and and 4 January. If this rise in geomagnetic activity
eventuates, minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be possible on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 63
Feb 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
04 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
05 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF stayed mostly close to the monthly predicted values
in the Aus/NZ regions on 2 January. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be observed for the next three days if the geomagnetic activity
remains at lower levels. There is some possibility of rise in
geomagnetic activity on 3 and and 4 January. If this rise in
geomagnetic activity eventuates, minor to moderate depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be possible on
these days in the region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 70100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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