[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 27 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 28 10:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 29 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 27 February.
Region 2506 (S06E13) remains active with minor surging as well
as producing a C3.3-class flare at 0555UT. Solar activity is
expected to be Low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
ranged from 425 to 350 km/s and is currently ~375 km/s. The total
IMF strength was around 6-8 nT. The Bz component varied between
+5/-3 nT and was predominantly positive. Expect current conditions
to prevail until late in the UT day, 29 February when there may
be a slight increase in the solar wind due to recurrent coronal
hole. SOHO C2 imagery shows two CMEs on the east limb first noted
at 0436UT and 0548UT, they appear to be farside activity near
the limb and are not expected to be Earthward bound.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11120011
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 3 01121012
Townsville 3 11121012
Learmonth 2 11121001
Norfolk Island 2 11120011
Culgoora 2 11120011
Gingin 3 11120111
Camden 4 12220012
Canberra 1 01110011
Launceston 4 12220112
Hobart 3 02220011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 01220000
Casey 10 33422112
Mawson 8 23222213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2210 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 2 Quiet
29 Feb 12 Unsettled
01 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region on 27 February. Quiet conditions are likely to prevail
until late in the UT day, 29 February, when geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase to Unsettled conditions with isolated
periods of Active conditions in the Australian region.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
29 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
29 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian
region, expect near monthly predicted values for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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