[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 27 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 29 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 29 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 26 February.
Region 2506 (S07E43) remains active with minor surging as well
as producing a C1.0-class flare. Solar activity is expected to
be Very Low to Low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
ranged from 350 to 450 km/s and is currently ~375 km/s. The total
IMF strength was around 13 nT, however has steadily decreased
and is currently around 6nT. The Bz component varied between
+9/-7 nT, however it was predominantly positive. No Earthward
CMEs noted.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Cocos Island 3 22111010
Darwin 3 22111011
Townsville 4 22111111
Learmonth 4 32111011
Norfolk Island 2 22100011
Culgoora 3 22101111
Gingin 5 32111111
Camden 4 22201111
Canberra 2 12101000
Launceston 6 23212111
Hobart 5 23202101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 22101000
Casey 17 45432122
Mawson 15 53332123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1210 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 4 Quiet
28 Feb 4 Quiet
29 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region on 26 February. Quiet conditions are likely to prevail
for the next 2 days. Late in the UT day, 29 February, expect
the geomagnetic activity to increase to Unsettled conditions
and isolated periods of Active conditions in the Australian region.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
29 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
29 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions were observed in southern Australian
region, otherwise MUFs are near monthly predicted values and
are expected to remain at near predicted conditions for the next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 30300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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