[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 28 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 29 10:30:34 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Very low to low activity is expected for the next 3 days. The
solar wind speed remained mostly steady, around 370 km/s, peaking
at 415 km/s. The total IMF strength increased early on to around
9 nT, subsequently declining to around 3 nT. The Bz component
varied between -3 to +6 nT, currently around -3 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to increase from late 29-Feb due to a
coronal hole that extends from the northern polar region to south
of the equator.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21211001
Cocos Island 2 11211000
Darwin 2 21111001
Townsville 3 21211001
Learmonth 3 21211001
Norfolk Island 1 11100011
Culgoora 2 21111001
Gingin 2 20211001
Camden 3 21211011
Canberra 3 21211001
Melbourne 3 21211001
Launceston 2 11211001
Hobart 2 11211001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 10101000
Casey 10 33431111
Mawson 10 32312124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0221 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Feb 10 Quiet to Active
01 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
02 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region on 28-Feb. These conditions are expected to continue until
late on 29-Feb when coronal hole effects are likely to result
in more active conditions, extending into 1-Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Feb Normal Normal Normal
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values were observed
in the Australian region on 28-Feb. Near monthly predicted values
are expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 64100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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