[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 23 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 24 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Region 2505 (N07W70) is declining. Very low activity is expected
for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed peaked at ~400 km/s,
currently ~350 km/s. The total IMF strength increased, peaking
around 7 nT, currently around 6 nT. The Bz component has been
southward since 17 UT, dipping to -7 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21011122
Cocos Island 3 11010122
Darwin 3 21001122
Townsville 4 21011122
Learmonth 4 21001123
Norfolk Island 2 10000022
Culgoora 3 21001022
Camden 4 21111022
Canberra 2 10100022
Launceston 4 21011122
Hobart 3 21011022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 11001011
Casey 16 34431134
Mawson 19 33121246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region on 23-Feb, with some active periods in the Antarctic.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 3 days,
with storm periods possible at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed over the last
24 hours with enhancements at low latitudes. Similar conditions
are expected for the next few days, with some mildly degraded
periods at high latitudes possible from 24-Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 85% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
25 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted values across the Australian
region on 23-Feb, with significantly enhancements periods at
low latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next few
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 68500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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