[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 23 10:30:28 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Feb             24 Feb             25 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Very low to low activity is expected for the next 3 days, with 
a slight chance of M-class events. The solar wind speed has increased 
slightly from ~340 km/s, peaking at ~390 km/s. This increase 
is likely to continue for the next few days. The total IMF strength 
peaked at around 9 nT, and is now around 4 nT. The Bz component 
varied between -5 and +8 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11011111
      Cocos Island         1   11110100
      Darwin               2   11011102
      Townsville           4   11111212
      Learmonth            2   10111102
      Norfolk Island       2   11010111
      Culgoora             3   11011211
      Canberra             0   00000101
      Launceston           3   11011212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000100
      Casey               13   35331121
      Mawson               7   22112114

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           27   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1100 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Feb     5    Quiet
24 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region on 22-Feb. Quiet conditions are expected for 23-Feb, with 
some unsettled periods possible from 24-Feb due to an expected 
increase in the solar wind speed.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed over the last 
24 hours with some enhancements at low latitudes. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next few days, with some mildly disturbed 
periods at high latitudes possible from 24-Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Feb    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb    65    Near predicted monthly values
25 Feb    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted values across the Australian 
region on 22-Feb, with some moderate enhancements at times at 
low latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next few 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    45100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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