[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 21 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 22 10:30:31 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Feb             23 Feb             24 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
only B-class events from region 2505 (N08W43). Solar wind speed 
continued to decline from ~400km/s at 00UT to be ~350km/s at 
the time of this report. The north south component of the IMF 
Bz fluctuated between +/-3nT. Solar activity is expected to be 
Low to Very Low for the next 3 days, with the slight chance of 
M-class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11000022
      Cocos Island         2   -1000022
      Darwin               2   21100021
      Townsville           3   21101022
      Learmonth            3   21001022
      Norfolk Island       3   21000022
      Culgoora             1   11000011
      Canberra             1   01000011
      Launceston           4   12101122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     2   12001010
      Casey               10   33421122
      Mawson              21   33212346

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2220 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Feb     5    Quiet
23 Feb     5    Quiet
24 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions observed over the last 24 hours 
with occasional depressed periods for mid latitudes and some 
disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. Mostly normal 
HF conditions expected for all regions for the next 3 days with 
possible disturbed periods for high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Feb    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Feb    55    Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb    55    Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Normal to enhanced ionospheric support observed over 
the last 24 hours for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Depressed 
MUF's during local day observed for some Southern AUS/NZ region 
stations and normal to disturbed periods for Antarctic stations. 
MUFs expected to be near monthly predicted values for all regions 
over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 482 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    85800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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