[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 24 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 25 10:30:28 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Feb             26 Feb             27 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with 
a C1 flare from region 2506 (S07E56). A CME from the southeast 
quadrant is unlikely to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low to low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed 
declined from ~360 km/s to ~320 km/s. The total IMF strength 
rose slightly, peaking around 8 nT. The Bz component varied from 
-5 to +4 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112111
      Cocos Island         3   21111020
      Darwin               4   11222012
      Townsville           4   11122111
      Learmonth            4   21211121
      Norfolk Island       3   12112011
      Culgoora             3   11112111
      Camden               5   12123111
      Canberra             1   01012000
      Launceston           6   12223111
      Hobart               5   12113111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     6   21224000
      Casey               16   34531222
      Mawson              15   43322234

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3   2000 0122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Feb     5    Quiet
27 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across Australia on 24-Feb, 
with some active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. Quiet 
to unsettled conditions are expected for 25-Feb, with quiet conditions 
on 26-27 Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Some early depressions observed at high latitudes on 
24-Feb, with minor enhancements later in the day. Periods of 
significantly enhanced MUFs at low latitudes also. Mid latitudes 
mostly normal. Some depressions likely at low latitudes on 25-26 
Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Feb    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted values across the Australian 
region on 24-Feb, with significantly enhanced periods at low 
latitudes. Some degraded periods observed at high latitudes. 
Similar conditions are expected on 25-Feb, with low latitudes 
recovering from 26-Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    50600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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