[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 12 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 13 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1048UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 109/59 107/57 107/57
COMMENT: The solar activity was at moderate levels for the UT
day, 12 Feb, with one M-class flare and three C-class flares.
These flares were from Region 2497, currently located just past
the solar centre, and Region 2492, currently located near the
west limb. The strongest M1.0 flare occurred at 12/1047 UT from
Region 2497 and it did not trigger a coronal mass ejection (CME).
The 2-day outlook (13-14 Feb) is for low to moderate solar activity
with C-class flares likely and chance of M-class flares. The
moderately long duration C8.9 flare that occurred at 11/2103
UT caused a Type II radio emission with an estimate shock speed
of 483 km/s, Type IV radio emission, and a halo CME. This CME
is expected to arrive at Earth early UT day Feb 15. No other
earth-directed CME were observed on the satellite imagery during
the past 24 hours. The solar wind has been mostly steady, near
350 km/s, during the past 24 hrs. The Bz component of the IMF
fluctuated between -/+ 10 nT. Bt was between 10 and 22 nT. The
outlook for UT day 13-14 Feb is for the solar winds to remain
at similar levels or even decline further to the ambient levels
as the effect of the small equatorial coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 22233222
Cocos Island 7 22222222
Darwin 8 22232222
Townsville 10 22233223
Learmonth 12 32233323
Norfolk Island 9 22233222
Culgoora 8 22232222
Canberra 7 21232212
Launceston 13 23343223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
Macquarie Island 13 22154211
Casey 21 34543224
Mawson 19 44343333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2222 3213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Feb 6 Quiet
15 Feb 40 Minor Storm
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions was mostly quiet and only
briefly reached active levels over the Australian region during
the last 24 hours (12 Feb). The Australian DST dipped to -51
nT at 12/1113 UT following a two hour period (12/0700 UT - 12/0900
UT) of IMF Bz been strongly southward. The outlook for UT day
13 - 14 Feb is for mostly quiet conditions and at times possibly
reaching unsettled levels. These conditions are forecasted due
to the waning effects of the small equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 12 Feb were near the predicted
monthly values. Similar conditions are expected for UT day 13
Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 12
February and is current for 12-13 Feb. Observed MUF's for the
UT day 12 Feb were slightly above the monthly predicted values.
The outlook (13 Feb) is for MUFs to remain near the monthly predicted
levels. The solar ionising radiations (10.7 cm solar flux) has
been steady near 120 s.f.u for the last 7 days. This is expected
to maintain normal HF conditions over the next two days. The
MUFs are expected to enhances on the UT day 15 Feb coinciding
with the onset of active geomagnetic conditions associated with
the anticipated arrival of the 11 Feb CME.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 17000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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