[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 14 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 1524UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: The solar activity was at moderate levels for the UT
day, 13 Feb, with one M-class flare and a number of smaller C-class
flares. These flares were all from active Region 2497, which
is currently located past the solar centre at N15W31. The strongest
M1.8 flare occurred at 13/1524 UT from Region 2497 and it did
not seem to trigger a coronal mass ejection (CME). Due to flare
potential from Region 2497, the 2-day outlook (14-15 Feb) is
for low to moderate solar activity with C-class flares likely
and chance of M-class flares. The 11 Feb CME associated with
the long duration C8.9 flare is expected to arrive at Earth on
early UT day Feb 15. No other earth-directed CME were observed
on the satellite imagery during the past 24 hours. The solar
wind has enhanced gradually from 350 km/s to 450 km/s during
the past 24 hrs. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between
-10 nT and 17 nT. Bt was between 5 and 20 nT. The magnitudes
of both Bz and Bt has declined gradually during the past 24 hrs,
and are currently at 6 nT and 0 nT. These fluctuations in the
solar wind speeds are associated with the waning effects of a
small equatorial coronal hole. The outlook for UT day 14-15 Feb
is for the solar winds to exhibit enhancement due to the anticipated
arrival of the 11 Feb CME on early UT day 15 Feb or thereabout.
Elevated levels of solar wind speeds are expected to continue
after UT day 15 Feb as a large southern hemisphere coronal hole
will soon be approaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 23321101
Cocos Island 4 23211100
Darwin 7 33321101
Townsville 8 33322111
Learmonth 8 33322102
Norfolk Island 5 23311000
Culgoora 8 24311111
Canberra 4 13311000
Launceston 10 24421111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 13331000
Casey 21 45542112
Mawson 16 34432214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 3313 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 8 Initially quiet but could reach active levels
by the end of the UT levels
15 Feb 40 Minor to Moderate Storm levels
16 Feb 20 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 13 February
and is current for 14-16 Feb. The geomagnetic conditions were
mostly at quiet levels during the last 24 hours (13 Feb). The
outlook for UT day 14 is for mostly quiet conditions, however
it could reach active levels towards the end of the UT day if
the 11 Feb CME effects arrived earlier than anticipated. On UT
day 15 Feb, expect minor to moderate geomagnetic conditions due
to the 11 Feb CME. Auroral sight could be possible on the local
night of 15 Feb from southern regions of Australia, including
Tasmania and maybe Victoria. Active conditions are expected to
last for few day after Feb 15 as a large southern hemisphere
coronal hole will soon be approaching effective location on the
solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
15 Feb Fair Normal Normal-fair
16 Feb Normal Poor Poor
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 13 Feb were near the predicted
monthly values. Similar conditions are expected for UT day 14
Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Feb 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 8 was issued
on 13 February and is current for 16-17 Feb. Observed MUF's for
the UT day 13 Feb were above the monthly predicted values. The
two day outlook (14-15 Feb) is for MUFs to remain near the monthly
predicted levels. This is anticipated due to enhancements in
charge densities in F-region of the ionosphere during the periods
preceding the onset of geomagnetic storms. MUF are expected to
degrade below the monthly predicted levels during the recovery
phase (after UT day 16 Feb) of the geomagnetic storms. Shortwave
fades are possible due the flare potential from Region 2497.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 34000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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