[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 11 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 12 10:30:32 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 107/57 105/54
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
11 Feb, with two C-class flares. These flares from Region 2497,
which has shown some evidence of growth. The strongest C8.9 flare
was between 11/2018 UT and 11/2128 UT, with peak intensity at
11/2103 UT. This moderately long duration flare caused a Type
II radio emission with an estimate shock speed of 483 km/s, which
is indicative of a coronal mass ejection (CME) may have occurred.
At the time of writing this report, the satellite imagery were
not available to confirm this. More updates on this event will
be provided later. The 2-day outlook (12-13 Feb) is for low to
moderate solar activity with C-class flares likely and isolated
chance of M-class flares. Our model runs indicated that the 09/0648
UT CME is not likely have an impact at Earth. The solar wind
has been mostly steady, near 350 km/s, during the past 24 hrs.
The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -12 nT and 6 nT.
Bt was between 3-12 nT. During the last 8 hours of the UT day
11 Feb, the solar speed and IMF magnitudes have gradually enhanced.
This is probably due the effects of the Corotating Interactive
Region (CIR) and the following high speed streams from the small
equatorial coronal hole is approaching a geoeffective location
on the solar disk. The outlook for UT day 12 Feb is for the solar
winds to gradually enhance as the effects of the coronal hole
continues.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 21223222
Cocos Island 5 21202222
Darwin 7 21223122
Townsville 8 31223222
Learmonth 7 31222222
Norfolk Island 6 20223122
Culgoora 6 21223112
Canberra 6 20223112
Launceston 11 31333213
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
Macquarie Island 15 21345312
Casey 9 32322123
Mawson 17 34322325
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2111 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions was mostly quiet and at times
reached unsettled levels over the Australian region during the
last 24 hours (11 Feb). The unsettled conditions were associated
with IMF Bz been southwards from prolonged periods. The outlook
for UT day 12 Feb is for mostly quiet to unsettled conditions,
and at times possibly reaching minor levels. These conditions
are forecasted due to a small equatorial coronal hole now taking
a geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 11 Feb were near the predicted
monthly values. Similar conditions are expected for UT day 12
Feb, except for the high latitude regions where some MUF depressions
could occur. This is forecasted due to the chance of active geomagnetic
conditions on UT day 12 Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 11 Feb were slightly above
the monthly predicted values. The outlook (12 Feb) is for MUFs
to remain near the monthly predicted levels. The solar ionising
radiations (10.7 cm solar flux) has been steady near 120 s.f.u
for the last 7 days. This is expected to maintain normal HF conditions.
However, MUFs could degrade on UT day 13 Feb if there was active
geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 46300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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