[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 10 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 11 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 10 Feb, with only one weak C-class flare and a number of
smaller B-class flares. The strongest C1.3 flare was observed
at 10/1522 UT from Region 2497. There are currently six numbered
Earth facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The 2-day outlook
(11-12 Feb) is for low solar activity with chance of smaller
C-class flares. The CME associated with 08 Feb disappearing solar
filament is not likely to effect earth. On UT day 9 Feb, there
were two CMEs observed on the satellite imagery. One occurring
at 09/0648 UT possibly associated with Region 2494 and the other
one at 09/2149 UT, seems to be a back side event. More updates
on the first event will be provided on the completion of the
model runs. The solar wind has been steady, near 400 km/s, during
the past 24 hrs. These are the waning effects of the coronal
hole. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -6 nT and
2 nT. Bt was between 3-6 nT. The outlook for UT day 11 Feb is
for the solar winds to gradually enhance since a small equatorial
coronal hole is approaching a geoeffective location on the solar
disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 22110011
Cocos Island 2 22100110
Darwin 2 11110012
Townsville 3 22110011
Learmonth 3 22110101
Norfolk Island 2 11010012
Culgoora 2 21110002
Canberra 1 11000001
Launceston 4 22120112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 11120001
Casey 8 33221122
Mawson 21 53321245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1113 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 6 Quiet and times becoming unsettled
12 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions was mostly quiet during the
last 24 hours (10 Feb). The outlook for UT day 11 Feb is for
mostly quiet conditions and at times possibly reaching unsettled
levels. These conditions are forecasted due to a small equatorial
coronal hole now taking a geoeffective location on the solar
disk. Similar conditions was expected on UT day 12 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 10 Feb were near the predicted
monthly values. Similar conditions are expected for UT day 11
Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 10 Feb were near the predicted
monthly values. The outlook (11 Feb) is for MUFs to remain near
the monthly predicted levels. The solar ionising radiations (10.7
cm solar flux) has been steady near 120 s.f.u for the last 7
days. This is expected to maintain normal HF conditions. However,
MUFs could degrade on UT day 13 Feb if there was active geomagnetic
conditions associated with the coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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