[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 09 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 10 10:30:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 9 Feb, with only one weak C-class flare and a number of
smaller B-class flares. The strongest C1.0 flare was observed
at 09/0601 UT. There are currently five numbered Earth facing
sunspot regions on the solar disk. The 2-day outlook (10-11 Feb)
is for low solar activity with chance of smaller C-class flares.
The long approximately 21 deg wide disappearing solar filament
centered near N20E20 and occurring between 08/1740 UT - 08/2308
UT seem to have generated a narrow coronal mass ejection (CME).
More updates on the effect of this event at Earth will be provided
upon completion of our model runs. The solar wind has been moderately
high but steady, near 450 km/s, during the past 24 hrs. These
are the waning effects of the coronal hole and possibly combined
with the glancing blow from the 05 Feb CME. The Bz component
of the IMF fluctuated between -10 nT and 8 nT. Bt was between
5-15 nT. The outlook for UT day 10 Feb is for the solar winds
to gradually trend towards ambient levels as the coronal hole
effects wane. On UT day 11 Feb, the solar winds are expected
to enhance again as another small equatorial coronal hole approaches
a geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 22232112
Cocos Island 6 2223111-
Darwin 6 12232111
Townsville 8 22233112
Learmonth 9 32233122
Norfolk Island 6 11232122
Culgoora 9 22242212
Canberra 6 22232101
Launceston 13 22353212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
Macquarie Island 21 1126521-
Casey 28 44653322
Mawson 18 43343333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 5441 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb 6 Quiet
12 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions was mostly quiet to unsettled
during the last 24 hours (9 Feb) and briefly reached minor storm
conditions. The Australian DST dipped to -33 nT at 09/1037 UT.
This was due to moderately elevated solar wind speeds associated
with the coronal hole and Bz turning southwards for at least
2 hours consecutively (09/0700 UT - 09/0900 UT). The outlook
for UT day 10 Feb is for mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions and at times possibly reaching minor storm levels.
These conditions are forecasted due to the solar winds are still
slightly strong, about 450 km/s, associated with the coronal
hole effects. Latter on UT day 11 Feb, mostly quiet conditions
are expected as the effects of the coronal hole wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 9 Feb were slightly above
the predicted monthly values. Similar conditions are expected
for UT day 10 Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Feb 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Feb 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 9 Feb were slightly above
the predicted monthly values. The outlook (10 Feb) is for MUFs
to remain at these levels. The above normal HF conditions are
associated with strong incoming solar ionising flux.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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