[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 08 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 9 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 8 Feb, with only one weak C-class flare and a number of
smaller B-class flares. The strongest C1.6 flare observed at
08/0529 UT from Region 2492(N14W12). There are currently six
earth facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The 2-day outlook
(9-10 Feb) is for low solar activity with chance of C-class flares.
We observed two notable events on GONG H Alpha. One was several
eruptive surges were observed from near Region 2492 (N15W14)
at about 08/1617UT and the other was a long length (approximately
20 deg wide) disappearing solar filament from N20E20. At the
time of writing, coronagraph imagery associated with these events
were not available to determine if these events caused any Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The solar wind enhanced briefly
between 08/0500 UT and 08/1500 UT, following the enhancements
in solar wind densities. This is indicative of the arrival of
co-rotating interactive region (CIR) associated with the equatorial
coronal hole. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between
+/- 10 nT and Bt was between 5-12 nT. The 2-day outlook (9-10
Feb) is for the solar winds to remain at these moderate levels
as the Coronal hole effects wane. In addition, there is chance
of weak enhancement in solar winds latter today and this is forecasted
due to the possible arrival of a glancing blow from the 05 Feb
CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 33321011
Cocos Island 4 22311000
Darwin 7 23321012
Townsville 8 33321012
Learmonth 8 33322011
Norfolk Island 5 23310011
Culgoora 7 33311011
Canberra 6 23311011
Launceston 11 34322122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
Macquarie Island 11 43422210
Casey 20 45532222
Mawson 28 55623223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1001 2422
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels
during the last 24 hours (8 Feb). This was due to moderate elevations
in solar wind speeds associated with the coronal hole and Bz
remaining strongly southwards for at least 4 hours consecutively
(08/0000 UT - 08/0400 UT). The Australian Dst dipped to a minimum
of -51 nT at 08/0700 UT associated with this event. The 2-day
outlook (8-9 Feb) is for mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions and at times possibly reaching minor storm levels.
The conditions are forecasted due to solar winds been slightly
strong, about 350 km/s, associated with the coronal hole effects,
with a chance of an additional enhancement due to the possible
arrival of a glancing blow from the 05 Feb CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 8 Feb were slightly above
the predicted monthly values. The outlook (9 Feb) is for MUFs
to depress slightly, but remain near the monthly predicted values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 8 Feb were slightly above
the predicted monthly values. The outlook (9 Feb) is for MUFs
to depress slightly, but remain near the monthly predicted values.
This is forecasted due to the minor storm condition observed
over the past 24 hrs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 41300 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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