[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 07 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 8 10:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at low levels on 7 February
with three low C-class flares, the largest at C2.7 level (at
1202 UT) from a new Region 2496 (N08E34). Solar wind speed showed
a slight decline from ~420 to ~370 km/s over the day by 2300
UT. The Bz component of IMF stayed positive up to around 5 nT
until 0900 UT, then turned negative and stayed mostly negative
up to around -5nT during the rest of the day. Low levels of solar
activity with the possibility of isolated M-class event may be
expected from 08 to 10 February. The effect of a coronal hole
may start to strengthen the solar wind stream from 8 February.
A faint CME, that was observed in the LASCO images at 05/1936
UT, may have an earthward component. It has been estimated to
arrive early on 9 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 11232311
Cocos Island 5 11221310
Darwin 7 21231311
Townsville 7 11232311
Learmonth 7 21222321
Norfolk Island 4 01221212
Culgoora 7 11232311
Canberra 4 10121310
Launceston 9 11332411
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
Macquarie Island 9 00134420
Casey 13 34332322
Mawson 19 32324444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 14 Quiet to Active
09 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
10 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained mostly at Quiet to Unsettled
levels on 7 February. Geomagnetic activity may increase up to
Active levels on 08 February due to an expected effect of a coronal
hole. Activity may stay at Unsettled to Active levels on 09 February
due to the expectedly continued effect of this coronal hole as
well as a possible blow from a faint and slow CME that was observed
on 05 February. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions may be expected
on 10 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF enhancements were observed during
the last 24 hours (07 Feb). Short wave fadeouts are possible
in the sunlit hemisphere 08-10 February. Minor to mild degradation
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may be possible on 08
and 09 February due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
on 10 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
09 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
10 Feb 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF enhancements were observed across
Aus/NZ regions during the last 24 hours (07 Feb). Short wave
fadeouts are possible in the sunlit hemisphere 08-10 February.
Minor to mild degradation in HF conditions and depressions in
MUFs in the Aus/NZ regions may be possible on 08 and 09 February
due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on
these days. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 10 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 69600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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