[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 7 10:30:26 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at low levels on 6 February
with two C-class flares, the largest at C1.1 level (at 0311 UT)
from Region 2494 (S11EW17). This region has reduced in complexity
but still holds potential for C-class flares and possibly isolated
M-class flare. Solar wind speed remained elevated mostly between
460 to 480 km/s over the day, but is expected to decline over
the next 24 hours. The Bz component of IMF showed variations
between +/-5 nT during most parts of the day. Low levels of solar
activity with the possibility of isolated M-class event may be
expected from 07 to 09 February. The effect of a coronal hole
may start to strengthen the solar wind stream from 8 February.
A faint CME, that was observed in the LASCO images at 05/1936
UT, may have an earthward component. It has been estimated to
arrive early on 9 February. Further analysis is required for
more details.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22112112
Cocos Island 4 21112211
Darwin 4 11112112
Townsville 5 22212112
Learmonth 5 22112212
Norfolk Island 3 11112111
Culgoora 5 22122111
Canberra 3 11112111
Launceston 8 32222222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
Macquarie Island 7 11143110
Casey 19 35532222
Mawson 15 24323234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2322 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 6 Quiet
08 Feb 14 Quiet to Active
09 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained mostly at Quiet levels
on 6 February. Nearly similar conditions are likely on 07 February.
Geomagnetic activity may increase up to Active levels on 08 February
due to an expected effect of a coronal hole. Activity may stay at
Unsettled to Active levels on 09 February due to the expectedly
continued effect of this coronal hole as well as a possible blow
from a faint and slow CME that was observed on 05 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFS were generally near predicted monthly values on
most locations with slight enhancements recorded on low and mid
latitude locations during the last 24 hours (06 Feb). Minor enhancements
in MUFs are expected to continue on 07 February. Short wave fadeouts
are possible in the sunlit hemisphere 07-09 February, mainly
due to some possibility of isolated M-class flaring from an active
region 2494. Minor to mild degradation in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs may be possible on 08 and 09 February due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
09 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFS were generally near predicted monthly values on
most locations in the Aus/NZ regions with slight enhancements
recorded on low and mid latitude locations during the last 24
hours (06 Feb). Minor enhancements in MUFs are expected to continue
on 07 February in the region. Short wave fadeouts are possible in
the sunlit hemisphere 07-09 February, mainly due to some possibility
of isolated M-class flaring from an active region 2494. Minor
to mild degradation in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs
in the Aus/NZ regions may be possible on 08 and 09 February due
to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on these
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 84000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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