[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 05 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 6 10:30:36 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at low levels on 5 February
with four C-class flares, the largest at C3 level (at 0056 UT)
from Region 2494 (S12EW04). This region holds potential for isolated
M-class flares. Solar wind speed remained elevated at around
480 km/s over the day, but is expected to decline over the next
2 days. The Bz component of IMF showed variations between +/-6
nT during the first half of the UT day and then stayed close
to the normal value during rest of the day. Low levels of solar
activity with the possibility of isolated M-class event may be
expected on 6 February. The effect of a coronal hole may start
to strengthen the solar wind stream from 8 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 23222222
Cocos Island 5 22211121
Darwin 5 22212112
Townsville 11 33223223
Learmonth 9 33222222
Norfolk Island 8 23222222
Culgoora 9 23223222
Canberra 7 23222212
Launceston 13 24323323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
Macquarie Island 13 34243221
Casey 33 66542232
Mawson 34 34432374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 16 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0021 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 6 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Feb 6 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Feb 14 Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained mostly at Quiet to Unsettled
levels on 5 February, as the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
remained oriented slightly northwards during most parts of the
day, limiting the impact of enhanced solar wind speeds. Expect
mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions to continue 06-07 February,
unless Bz turns significantly negative for a prolonged period.
The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole
may raise the geomagnetic activity to Unsettled with some Active
periods on 08 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFS were generally near predicted monthly values on
most locations with slight enhancements recorded on mid latitude
locations during the last 24 hours (05 Feb). Minor enhancements
in MUFs are expected to continue 06-07 February. Short wave fadeouts
are possible in the sunlit hemisphere 06-08 February due to an
active region with increased flare potential. Mostly normal HF
conditions with MUFs near predicted monthly values, may be expected
on 08 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Feb 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 4
February and is current for 5-6 Feb. MUFS were generally near
predicted monthly values on most locations in the Aus/NZ regions
with slight enhancements recorded on mid latitude locations during
the last 24 hours (05 Feb). Minor enhancements in MUFs are expected
to continue 06-07 February in the region. Short wave fadeouts
are possible in the sunlit hemisphere 06-08 February due to an
active region with increased flare potential. Mostly normal HF
conditions with MUFs near predicted monthly values, may be expected
on 08 February in Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 72800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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