[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 03 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 4 10:30:25 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Feb             05 Feb             06 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels on 3 February. Four 
low level C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C1.8 
flare that peaked at 1524 UT. Solar wind speed showed a gradual 
increase from ~350 km/s to ~420 km/s during the UT day today. 
The Bz component of IMF stayed negative up to around -9 nT during 
the first four hours of the day and then turned positive. Bz 
stayed mostly positive up to around 8 nT during most parts of 
the remaining day. Solar wind may continue to stay at current 
slightly stronger levels on 4 February due to the continued effect 
of the currently geoeffective coronal hole. Low levels of solar 
activity may be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22211212
      Cocos Island         3   22101210
      Darwin               4   22201211
      Townsville           5   22211212
      Learmonth            8   33211222
      Norfolk Island       4   32100111
      Culgoora             5   22211211
      Canberra             4   22200103
      Launceston           8   33311212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     7   34310000
      Casey               13   34432122
      Mawson              16   45422211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   0010 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb     6    Quiet
06 Feb     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Despite some expected strengthening in solar wind stream 
parameters due to the coronal hole effect, geomagnetic conditions 
stayed mostly at Quiet levels with some Unsettled periods. The 
less than expected increase in geomagnetic activity levels seems 
to have happened due to continued hours of IMF Bz being positive. 
The effect of the currently geoeffective coronal hole may still 
lead to some enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels up to 
Unsettled and possibly isolated Active periods on 4 February 
if Bz turns significantly negative for prolonged hours. Mostly 
Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected on 5 and 
6 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly normal on 3 February with 
some periods of minor to significant MUF enhancements in the 
low and mid latitude regions and minor MUF depressions in the 
high latitude regions. Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions 
and MUF depressions may be possible in this region due to the 
possibility of some rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this 
day. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 5 and 6 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Feb    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
05 Feb    65    Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly normal on 3 February in 
the Aus/NZ regions with some periods of minor to significant 
MUF enhancements in the Northern regions and minor MUF depressions 
in the Southern regions. Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions 
and MUF depressions in Aus/NZ regions may be possible 
due to the possibility of some rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels on this day. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected 
on 5 and 6 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 276 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    22500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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