[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 02 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 3 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels on 2 February. Today's
largest event was a C1.2 flare that peaked at 1452 UT. Solar
wind speed stayed around 270 km/s until 1400 UT and then showed
a gradual increase to 370 km/s by 2300 UT today. The Bz component
of IMF stayed close to the normal value until around 1400 UT
and then showed variations between +/-8 nT during the remaining
parts of the day. Solar wind may get further strength today due
to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal
hole. Very low levels of solar activity, with the possibility
of isolated C-class flare, may be expected for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 11112322
Cocos Island 4 11111222
Darwin 6 21112322
Townsville 8 11112333
Learmonth 6 11112322
Norfolk Island 3 01001222
Culgoora 6 10112323
Canberra 3 00001222
Launceston 8 11212333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 00113312
Casey 15 43432223
Mawson 11 23222324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3333 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 15 Quiet to Active
04 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled, isolated active periods possible
05 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at Quiet to Unsettled
levels on 2 February. The effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a coronal hole may increase the activity to Active levels
on 3 February and Unsettled levels with the possibility of isolated
Active periods on 4 February. Geomagnetic activity is then expected
to decline to Unsettled and then to Quiet levels on 5 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly normal on 2 February. Minor
to mild degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions may
be possible on 3 and 4 February due to an expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days. HF conditions are expected to
return to normal levels on 5 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
04 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
05 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly normal on 2 February in
the Aus/NZ regions. Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions
and MUF depressions may be possible in this region on 3 and 4
February due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days. HF conditions are expected to return to normal
levels on 5 February in the region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 297 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 31600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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