[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 29 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Dec 30 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 29 December with no notable flares. Very low levels of
solar activity is expected for the next 3 days (30 December -
1 January) with slight chance of C-class flares. Region 2621
(N10W86) will soon rotate to the rear side of the visible solar
disk. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO
imagery on UT day 29 December. The solar wind speed continued
to decline towards ambient levels, dropping from ~425 km/s at
the beginning of the UT day to ~350 km/s by the end of the UT
day. This is in response to the waning effects of a positive
polarity coronal hole. The IMF Bt varied between 3 and 5.5 nT
over the UT day. The Bz component varied between -4 and +3 nT.
The outlook for the early part of today 30 December is for the
solar winds to continue to trend toward nominal levels as the
current coronal hole effects fadeout. However from late UT day
30 December, the solar winds are expected to enhance again in
response to arrival of high speed streams from another recurrent
equatorial coronal hole soon reaching geoeffective location on
the solar disk. The size of the new approaching coronal hole
is relatively larger compared to its characteristics during the
previous rotation so more disturbed conditions are expected in
this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11122201
Cocos Island 2 11112100
Darwin 3 11112101
Townsville 4 11122211
Learmonth 3 21012201
Culgoora 6 32122211
Gingin 3 11112201
Camden 4 11122201
Canberra 4 12122201
Launceston 4 12122201
Hobart 4 11122201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 11033200
Casey 11 34322212
Mawson 14 43123423
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1201 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 16 Active
31 Dec 20 Active
01 Jan 16 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 58 was issued on 29 December
and is current for 30-31 Dec. Geomagnetic activity was mostly
at quiet levels across the Australian region on UT day 29 December.
The two day outlook (30-31 December) is for the geomagnetic conditions
to reach active level with isolated chance of minor storms. This
is in response to the anticipated arrival of co-rotating interaction
region and subsequent high speed streams associated with an equatorial
coronal hole reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk
today (30 December). Auroras may be visible on the local nights
of 30 and 31 December in Tasmania and possibly from the coastline
of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
31 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed on UT
day 29 December in the mid and high southern hemisphere regions.
MUFs in the northern hemisphere regions were mostly near the
monthly predicted levels. Sightly improved MUF conditions are
expected for today, 30 December, in response of the anticipated
arrival of active geomagnetic conditions associated with the
approaching coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs on UT day 29 December were mostly near monthly
predicted levels with sporadic minor depressions scattered across
the Australian regions. The outlook for today 30 December is
for slight enhancements in MUF levels due to possible increase
in ionisation levels on Day 1 of anticipated storming associated
with the approaching coronal hole. On subsequent days (31 December
and 1 January), depression is MUFs are expected as the ionisations
loss processes spread equatorwards.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 49700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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