[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 December 16 issued 2343 UT on 28 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 29 10:43:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 70/5 72/8
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 28 December with no flares. Very low levels of solar activity
is expected for the next 2 days (29-30 December) with slight
chance of C-class flares due to the flaring potential of Region
2621 (N10W73). No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available
LASCO imagery on UT day 28 December. The solar wind speed continued
to decline towards ambient levels, dropping from ~500 km/s at
the beginning of the UT day to ~400 km/s by the end of the UT
day. This is in response to the waning effects of a positive
polarity coronal hole. The IMF Bt was steady near 3 nT over the
UT day. The Bz component varied between -3 and +3 nT. The outlook
for today 29 December is for the solar winds to continue to trend
toward nominal levels as the current coronal hole effects further
wane. However from late UT day 30 December, the solar winds are
expected to enhance again in response to another recurrent equatorial
coronal hole reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
The size of the new approaching coronal hole is relatively larger
compared to its characteristics during the previous rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 21111211
Cocos Island 2 11110200
Darwin 2 11011201
Townsville 5 21121222
Learmonth 3 21111201
Norfolk Island 3 11110112
Culgoora 5 12-21222
Gingin 3 21110201
Camden 5 21111222
Canberra 4 21110221
Launceston 7 22221322
Hobart 3 11110211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 11111211
Casey 15 44332322
Mawson 15 32122245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3311 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 6 Quiet
30 Dec 16 Active
31 Dec 20 Active
COMMENT: Magnetic activity was mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region on UT day 28 December. The outlook for
today 29 December is for the geomagnetic conditions to remain
mostly at quiet levels as the current coronal effects wane. However
on 30 and 31 December, geomagnetic conditions could reach active
and occasionally to minor storm levels. This is in response to
the anticipated arrival of co-rotating interaction region and
subsequent high speed streams associated with another equatorial
coronal hole reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk
on 30 December. Auroras may be visible on the local nights of
30 and 31 December in Tasmania and possibly from the coastline
of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
31 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed on UT
day 28 December in the mid and high southern hemisphere regions.
MUFs in the northern hemisphere regions were mostly near the
monthly predicted levels. Sightly improved MUF conditions are
expected for today, 29 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 30 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels with
sporadic minor depressions scattered across the Australian regions.
The two day outlook (29-30) December) is for similar MUF conditions
as the ionosphere continues to recover from the 26 December coronal
effects. The approaching coronal hole is expected to initially
further enhance ionisation levels on 30 December, followed by
storm-associated depressions on the subsequent days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 578 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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