[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 December 16 issued 2331 UT on 30 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Dec 31 10:31:09 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 74/11
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 30 December with no notable flares. Very low levels of
solar activity is expected for the next 3 days (31 December -
2 January) with slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery on UT day 30 December.
The solar wind speeds were steady near the ambient levels of
350 km/s throughout the UT day. The IMF Bt were steady near 4
nT and the Bz component varied between -5 and +4 nT. The outlook
for the early part of today 31 December is for the solar winds
to remain near the ambient levels. However from late UT day 31
December, the solar winds are expected to enhance again in response
to arrival of high speed streams from a recurrent equatorial
coronal hole soon reaching geoeffective location on the solar
disk. The size of the approaching coronal hole is relatively
larger compared to its characteristics during the previous rotation
so conditions are expected to be more disturbed in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Cocos Island 1 01111000
Darwin 2 11011101
Townsville 2 11011101
Learmonth 2 11112100
Culgoora 6 31131112
Gingin 2 11012100
Camden 2 11011101
Canberra 1 01011101
Launceston 4 12112111
Hobart 2 01111101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 01011000
Casey 10 34322111
Mawson 8 33112222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2111 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 15 Initially quiet and reaching active levels
01 Jan 20 Active
02 Jan 16 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 58 was issued on 29 December
and is current for 30-31 Dec. Geomagnetic activity was mostly
at quiet levels across the Australian region on UT day 30 December.
The two day outlook (31 December and 1 January) is for the geomagnetic
conditions to range from quiet to active levels with isolated
chance of minor storms. This is in response to the anticipated
arrival of co-rotating interaction region and subsequent high
speed streams associated with an equatorial coronal hole soon
reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk. Auroras may
be visible on the local nights of 1 January in Tasmania and possibly
from the coastline of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed on UT
day 30 December in the mid and high southern hemisphere regions.
MUFs in the northern hemisphere regions were mostly near the
monthly predicted levels. Sightly improved MUF conditions are
expected for today, 31 December, in response of the anticipated
arrival of active geomagnetic conditions associated with the
approaching coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% throughout the day.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs on UT day 30 December were mostly near monthly
predicted levels with sporadic minor depressions scattered across
the Australian regions. The outlook for today 31 December is
for slight enhancements in MUF levels due to possible increase
in ionisation levels on Day 1 of anticipated storming associated
with the approaching coronal hole. On subsequent days (1-2 January),
depression is MUFs are expected as the ionisations loss processes
spread equatorwards.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 20800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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