[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 25 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Dec 26 10:30:17 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 75/13
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
As anticipated, solar wind stream stayed strong due to the continued
coronal hole effect. Solar wind speed mostly varied between 560
km/s and 720 km/s over the UT day today (25 December). The Bz
component of IMF varied mostly between +/-6 nT. Bt varied mostly
between 5 and 8 nT through the day. This coronal hole effect
is expected to keep the solar wind stream strong for the next
one to two days (26 and possibly 27 December). Currently there
are no numbered sunspots on the earthside part of the solar disk.
Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next
three days (26, 27 and 28 December).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 15 33144332
Cocos Island 10 22133331
Darwin 13 32143332
Townsville 16 33244332
Learmonth 18 32154342
Alice Springs 15 33144332
Norfolk Island 10 33133221
Gingin 19 33153442
Camden 16 33244332
Canberra 14 33243332
Launceston 19 33254333
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
Macquarie Island 25 22165442
Casey 31 56443433
Mawson 71 54345784
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 2332 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods
possible
27 Dec 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
28 Dec 6 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: As expected, the geomagnetic activity remained enhanced
today (25 December) due to the continued effect of the high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole. The strong solar wind
parameters due to the coronal hole effect still indicate the
possibility of a rise in geomagnetic activity to active levels
on 26 and possibly 27 December if Bz shows sustained periods
of negative enough values. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of
geomagnetic activity may be expected on 26 and 27 December with
some possibility of active periods on these days. Geomagnetic
activity is then expected to gradually decline to quiet levels
with some unsettled periods possible on 28 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
27 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed today
(25 December UT). Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected
on 26 and 27 December. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near
predicted monthly values on 28 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec 6 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Dec 10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
28 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed in Aus/NZ
regions today (25 December UT). Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected in this region on 26 and 27 December. MUFs are
expected to stay mostly near predicted monthly values on 28 December
in this region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 628 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 228000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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