[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 25 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Dec 26 10:30:17 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Dec             27 Dec             28 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               75/13

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
As anticipated, solar wind stream stayed strong due to the continued 
coronal hole effect. Solar wind speed mostly varied between 560 
km/s and 720 km/s over the UT day today (25 December). The Bz 
component of IMF varied mostly between +/-6 nT. Bt varied mostly 
between 5 and 8 nT through the day. This coronal hole effect 
is expected to keep the solar wind stream strong for the next 
one to two days (26 and possibly 27 December). Currently there 
are no numbered sunspots on the earthside part of the solar disk. 
Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 
three days (26, 27 and 28 December).

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   33144332
      Cocos Island        10   22133331
      Darwin              13   32143332
      Townsville          16   33244332
      Learmonth           18   32154342
      Alice Springs       15   33144332
      Norfolk Island      10   33133221
      Gingin              19   33153442
      Camden              16   33244332
      Canberra            14   33243332
      Launceston          19   33254333
      Hobart               -   --------    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    25   22165442
      Casey               31   56443433
      Mawson              71   54345784

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   2332 3312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Dec    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods 
                possible
27 Dec    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible
28 Dec     6    Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible

COMMENT: As expected, the geomagnetic activity remained enhanced 
today (25 December) due to the continued effect of the high speed 
solar wind stream from a coronal hole. The strong solar wind 
parameters due to the coronal hole effect still indicate the 
possibility of a rise in geomagnetic activity to active levels 
on 26 and possibly 27 December if Bz shows sustained periods 
of negative enough values. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of 
geomagnetic activity may be expected on 26 and 27 December with 
some possibility of active periods on these days. Geomagnetic 
activity is then expected to gradually decline to quiet levels 
with some unsettled periods possible on 28 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
27 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed today 
(25 December UT). Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected 
on 26 and 27 December. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near 
predicted monthly values on 28 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Dec     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      24
Jan      23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Dec     6    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Dec    10    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
28 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed in Aus/NZ 
regions today (25 December UT). Nearly similar HF conditions 
may be expected in this region on 26 and 27 December. MUFs are 
expected to stay mostly near predicted monthly values on 28 December 
in this region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 628 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   228000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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