[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 24 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Dec 25 10:30:58 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
As anticipated, solar wind stream stayed strong due to the continued
coronal hole effect. Solar wind speed mostly varied between 600
km/s and 700 km/s over the UT day today (24 December). The Bz
component of IMF varied mostly between +/-5 nT. Bt varied mostly
between 2 and 7 nT through the day. This coronal hole effect
is expected to keep the solar wind stream strong for the next
one to two days (25 and possibly 26 December). Currently there
are no numbered sunspots on the earthside part of the solar disk.
Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next
three days (25, 26 and 27 December).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Mostly quiet
to unsettled, isolated active periods on high latitudes
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 22323322
Cocos Island 5 11112321
Darwin 8 22213322
Townsville 10 22323322
Learmonth 10 22323322
Alice Springs 10 22323322
Norfolk Island 8 22322222
Gingin 12 22323423
Camden 10 22323322
Canberra 10 22323322
Launceston 14 23433323
Hobart 9 223231--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Dec :
Macquarie Island 18 22534422
Casey 29 46543323
Mawson 31 44334555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22 3533 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
26 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: As expected, the geomagnetic activity remained enhanced
today (24 December) due to the continued effect of the high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole. The enhancements were
below the expected levels as the Bz component of IMF did not
turn much negative. The strong solar wind parameters due to the
coronal hole effect still indicate the possibility of a rise
in geomagnetic activity to active levels on 25 December if Bz
shows sustained periods of negative enough values. Mostly quiet
to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected on
25 December with some possibility of isolated active periods
on this day. Geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually
decline to quiet to unsettled levels on 26 December, and then
to mostly quiet levels on 27 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed today
(24 December UT). Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected
on 25 December. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near predicted
monthly values on 26 and 27 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec 8 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
26 Dec 12 Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed in Aus/NZ
regions today (24 December UT). Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected in this region on 25 December. MUFs are expected
to stay mostly near predicted monthly values on 26 and 27 December
in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 696 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 197000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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