[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 December 16 issued 2335 UT on 26 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 27 10:35:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 26 December, with no notable flares. There are no sunspot
regions on the visible solar disk. Consequently, very low levels
of solar activity is expected for the next 3 days, 27-29 December.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery
on UT day 26 December. The solar wind speeds varied between 650
and 750 km/s during the last 24 hours. These elevated solar wind
speeds are in response to high speed streams emanating from a
positive polarity coronal hole. The IMF Bt were steady near 5
nT over the UT day. The Bz component varied between -5 and +3
nT. The two day outlook (27-28 December) is for the solar winds
to start declining as the coronal hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 32333222
Cocos Island 8 22223312
Darwin 10 22333312
Townsville 12 32333322
Learmonth 13 32334322
Norfolk Island 9 32322222
Camden 11 32333222
Canberra 11 32333222
Launceston 13 33334222
Hobart 12 33333222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
Macquarie Island 28 33356521
Casey 30 46543423
Mawson 46 44454745
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18 3324 4442
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 18 Active
28 Dec 12 Unsettled
29 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The Earth is currently under the influence of moderate
to strong solar wind streams from the positive polarity coronal
hole. Magnetic activity was quiet to unsettled across the Australian
region on UT day 26 December. The Australian Dst dipped to a
minimum of -46 nT at ~26/0200UT, with few other short-lived periods
of moderately disturbed (-20 to -40 nT) Australian Dst levels.
These are associated with enhanced solar wind speeds emanating
from the coronal hole. The two day outlook (27-28 December) is
for the geomagnetic conditions to range mostly from quiet to
active levels and occasionally may reach minor storm levels in
the high latitude regions. This is forecasted because the solar
winds associated with the coronal hole are still at moderately
elevated levels, but are expected to gradually decline. Under
such conditions, a prolonged southward IMF Bz could lead to disturbed
geomagnetic conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed on UT
day 26 December in the mid and high southern hemisphere regions.
MUFs in the equatorial and northern hemisphere regions were near
the monthly predicted levels. Further MUF degradations are expected
today 27 December, in response to the active conditions observed
on 26 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Dec 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs occurred during
the local day over most Australian regions on UT day 26 December.
MUFs for the equatorial regions (for example at Cocos island)
were near monthly predicted levels throughout the UT day. The
two day outlook is for further degradation of MUFs due to loss
in ionisation levels associated with active conditions observed
on UT day 26 December. HF support are expected to return to near
monthly predicted levels from late 29 December. HF users are
advised to use lower than the monthly predicted frequencies today
and tomorrow, 27-28 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 635 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 208000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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