[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 19 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Tue Dec 20 10:30:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 78/17
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed steady, mostly between 350 and 370 km/s,
during the UT day today (19 December) and the north-south component
of IMF varied between -4 nT and +4nT (staying southward until
around 1900 UT) during this time. As mentioned in earlier reports,
two positive polarity coronal holes are taking geoeffective position.
This coronal hole effect may start to strengthen the solar wind
wind stream from 20 December. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next three days (20, 21 and 22 December)
with a slight possibility of isolated C-class activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22111121
Cocos Island 2 01111120
Darwin 2 11110111
Townsville 6 22111132
Learmonth 5 21121221
Alice Springs 4 12110122
Norfolk Island 2 21100021
Gingin 4 21121121
Camden 5 22211122
Canberra 5 22210122
Launceston 7 23211222
Hobart 5 12211122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 12222121
Casey 16 34522132
Mawson 18 34322353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2221 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 15 Quiet to Active
21 Dec 25 Unsettled to Minor Storm
22 Dec 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels on 19 December.
An expected, strengthening in solar wind stream due to a coronal
hole effect may result in enhancements in geomagnetic activity
levels to Active on 20 December and to Minor Storm on 21 and
22 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal-fair Normal-poor Normal-poor
21 Dec Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor
22 Dec Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed today.
Depressed conditions are likely to continue in coming days as
geomagnetic activity is expected to rise from today and the level
of ionising radiation is not expected to increase. Lowering the
operating frequency may result in propagation via sporadic E
layers when present.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec -5 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Dec -10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
22 Dec -15 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on 18 December
and is current for 19-21 Dec. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
were observed in Aus/NZ regions today. Depressed conditions are
likely to continue in coming days as geomagnetic activity is
expected to rise from today and the level of ionising radiation
is not expected to increase. Lowering the operating frequency
may result in propagation via sporadic E layers when present.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list