[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 18 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Dec 19 10:30:38 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: New minor sunspot groups formed in the Eastern Hemisphere
during the past 24 hours. Solar flare activity was very low during
18 Dec UT and it is expected to remain very low during the next
3 days. SOHO LASCO coronograms recorded no new CMEs during 18
Dec. Positive polarity Coronal Holes 779 and 780 will affect
Earth this week. A minor Corotating Interaction Region (CIR)
arrived at Earth during 17-18 Dec. The solar wind speed peaked
at about 465 km/s during 02 UT on 18 Dec, and has decreased back
to about 355 km/s at the time of this report. The magnitude of
the IMF peaked at about 12 nT during 13 UT on the 17 Dec. Bz
reached about -9 nT at the same time. The magnitude of the IMF
is currently about 7 nT and Bz has been fluctuating between -4
nT and +4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Cocos Island 3 21121110
Darwin 5 22222101
Townsville 8 32223112
Learmonth 7 32222121
Alice Springs 6 22223101
Norfolk Island 5 22222101
Gingin 8 32223112
Camden 6 22222112
Canberra 5 22222102
Launceston 9 33223212
Hobart 7 32222112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 32213211
Casey 22 46433212
Mawson 18 54422232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0000 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
21 Dec 25 Active
COMMENT: A minor Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) caused unsettled
conditions during late 17 Dec and early 18 Dec UT. The planetary
magnetic index peaked at 3 during 00-09 UT on 18 Dec. Geomagnetic
conditions were less disturbed in the Australian region during
this interval because of its dayside location. Positive polarity
Coronal Holes 779 and 780 will affect Earth this week. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to active during 19-20 Dec
UT. Minor storm intervals are likely on 21-22 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
20 Dec Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
21 Dec Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
in the Southern Hemisphere and moderately depressed in the Northern
Hemisphere during 18 Dec UT. Depressed conditions are likely
to continue in the Southern Hemisphere in coming days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec 0 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Dec -5 0 to 25% below predicted monthly values
21 Dec -5 0 to 25% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
throughout the Australian region during 18 Dec UT. Local daily
T indices were -24 at Cocos Island, -20 at Hobart, and +11 at
Perth. Depressed conditions are likely to continue in coming
days. Lowering the operating frequency may result in propagation
via sporadic E layers when present.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 24200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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